Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder

The study finds that large urban male youth bulges are not generally associated with increased risks of social disturbance. Instead, factors such as the absence of democratic institutions, low economic growth, and low secondary educational attainment are robustly linked to higher levels of urban social disorder.

• Large urban male youth bulges aged 15–24 are generally not associated with an increased risk of either violent or non-violent social disturbance.
• Proxy measures of youth exclusion, including high levels of informal employment, male gender imbalances, and expansions in tertiary education, do not appear to increase the risk that urban male youth bulges are associated with social disturbance.
• Low economic growth is consistently and robustly associated with increased levels of urban social disturbance.
• The absence of democratic institutions, specifically semi-democratic regimes, is associated with higher levels of both lethal and non-lethal social disturbance events compared to autocracies and democracies.
• Low levels of secondary educational attainment among males aged 20–24 are strongly associated with higher levels of disturbance, and higher secondary education levels are specifically linked to lower levels of lethal events.
• In Sub-Saharan African cities, growth in the youth population (aged 15–24) is associated with a significantly lower risk of social disturbance, while the relative size of the youth bulge is associated with more lethal events.
• City population size is positively associated with social disorder, though this was statistically significant primarily for lethal events.

APA

Urdal, H., & Hoelscher, K. (2009). Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5276c095-833e-47d2-910b-52b1c1f3b9b9/WPS5110.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Urdal, Henrik, and Kristian Hoelscher. Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5276c095-833e-47d2-910b-52b1c1f3b9b9/WPS5110.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Urdal |first1=Henrik |last2=Hoelscher |first2=Kristian |title=Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5276c095-833e-47d2-910b-52b1c1f3b9b9/WPS5110.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{urdal2009urban, author = {Urdal, Henrik and Hoelscher, Kristian}, title = {{Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5276c095-833e-47d2-910b-52b1c1f3b9b9/WPS5110.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }