South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry

The document argues that the India-Pakistan conflict is the core security dynamic of the South Asia Regional Security Complex (RSC), with Afghanistan serving as an 'insulator' or buffer zone. While India possesses greater aggregate power, the rivalry remains durable due to 'truncated power asymmetry'—where local parity in nuclear capabilities and territorial disputes in Kashmir offsets India's global superiority. The author contends that both nations project their internal insecurities and mutual mistrust onto Afghanistan, using it as a zone for proxy competition rather than a core security priority. Pakistan's engagement is driven by a need for 'strategic depth' and fears of Pashtun nationalism, while India uses economic aid to project regional leadership and counter Pakistani influence. The paper concludes that stabilization in Afghanistan is unlikely as long as the core insecurities within the South Asia RSC remain unresolved.

• South Asia is characterized as a distinct Regional Security Complex (RSC) where the central security dynamic is the persistent rivalry between India and Pakistan, which is reinforced by global power rivalries.
• The India-Pakistan rivalry persists despite India's overall superiority in power indicators because of a 'truncated power asymmetry' where local parity is maintained through nuclear capabilities, the Kashmir dispute, and terrorism.
• Afghanistan functions as an 'insulator' or buffer zone; its internal chaos is a periphery issue rather than the core security problem for South Asian states, who project their own regional rivalries onto Afghan soil.
• Pakistan's security strategy in Afghanistan is driven by the 'strategic depth' doctrine, seeking a cushion against India and the prevention of a united Pashtunistan that could threaten its own internal stability.
• India utilizes economic influence and aid in Afghanistan to establish itself as a benign regional leader and to insulate itself from the risks of fundamentalist Islam and narcotics.
• Domestic fragmentation in Pakistan, specifically the tension between the military 'establishment' and civilian authority, as well as ethnic grievances among Pashtuns, weakens its state capacity and increases insecurity.
• India faces internal security challenges from Maoist-influenced Naxalite groups, which the government attempts to combat through a combination of law-and-order strategies and targeted development projects.
• The United States exacerbates regional instability by maintaining an ambiguous 'double game' of engaging both India and Pakistan, which increases mutual mistrust.
• Water sharing of the Indus River system has emerged as a new potential flashpoint for conflict, with Pakistan accusing India of 'water terrorism' through the construction of hydroelectric dams.

APA

Tadjbakhsh, S. (n.d.). South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9da907e4-6f1d-4fa6-9f16-17479aeb9222/South Asia and Afghanistan The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou. South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9da907e4-6f1d-4fa6-9f16-17479aeb9222/South Asia and Afghanistan The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tadjbakhsh |first1=Shahrbanou |title=South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9da907e4-6f1d-4fa6-9f16-17479aeb9222/South Asia and Afghanistan The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tadjbakhshndsouth, author = {Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou}, title = {{South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9da907e4-6f1d-4fa6-9f16-17479aeb9222/South Asia and Afghanistan The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }