Sealing Borders with Diplomacy

The document analyzes how host governments treat foreign rebel groups, finding a global trend toward increased suppression and decreased support since the mid-1990s. It identifies leadership transitions and US-led 'naming and shaming' after 9/11 as primary drivers of anti-rebel cooperation. The analysis concludes that joint counterinsurgency operations are more effective at destroying rebel bases than unilateral actions.

• Approximately half of all global insurgencies utilize external sanctuaries in neighboring countries to protect their leadership, troops, and supplies.
• Since the mid-1990s, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of rebel sanctuaries being attacked by host governments, with roughly two-thirds of transnational groups now under attack.
• Active state support for rebel sanctuaries declined sharply after the 2001 September 11 attacks; by 2017, only 10% of sanctuaries received active support.
• Leadership transitions in host countries are a major driver of anti-rebel cooperation, accounting for one in six crackdown campaigns since 1989.
• Diplomatic pressure and 'naming and shaming' following 9/11 increased the implementation of anti-rebel pledges, particularly for countries with high trade dependence on the US.
• Joint and multilateral operations are more successful at dislodging rebel strongholds than unilateral efforts, with a success rate near 60% compared to less than 40% for unilateral actions.

APA

Schram, J. (2023). Sealing Borders with Diplomacy. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e088147d-526c-4ba2-8cba-58180e39c81e/Schram - Sealing Borders with Diplomacy - Conflict Trends 2-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Schram, Jakob. Sealing Borders with Diplomacy. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e088147d-526c-4ba2-8cba-58180e39c81e/Schram - Sealing Borders with Diplomacy - Conflict Trends 2-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schram |first1=Jakob |title=Sealing Borders with Diplomacy |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=February 2023 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e088147d-526c-4ba2-8cba-58180e39c81e/Schram - Sealing Borders with Diplomacy - Conflict Trends 2-2023.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schram2023sealing, author = {Schram, Jakob}, title = {{Sealing Borders with Diplomacy}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e088147d-526c-4ba2-8cba-58180e39c81e/Schram - Sealing Borders with Diplomacy - Conflict Trends 2-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }