Roving Bandits?

The research analyzes the geographical evolution of African civil wars using the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED). It argues that rebel groups with strong ethnic ties or significant military strength tend to maintain stable, localized conflict zones, whereas groups lacking these attributes—or those receiving external military support—are more likely to be 'roving.' The study finds that the greatest mobility occurs when rebels have neither strong local ties nor the strength to compete conventionally with government forces.

• Rebel groups that make ethnic claims tend to have more stable and localized conflict zones, as they prioritize consolidating control over a specific homeland and can better blend in with local populations.
• External military participation by outside actors is strongly associated with increased movement of conflict zones, as it reduces the rebel group's focus on cultivating local ties and hierarchies.
• Conflict zones exhibit greater mobility when government forces possess dominant military strength, forcing weaker rebel groups to use mobility and guerrilla tactics for survival.
• The highest degree of conflict zone mobility occurs when rebel groups lack both strong local ethnic ties and the military strength to compete with the state.
• Proximity to non-coastal international borders increases the likelihood of conflict stationarity, as governments struggle to project power into peripheral regions.
• Empirical analysis of African conflict polygons shows significant overall movement; less than 45% of conflict areas in a given year overlap by more than 50% with the previous year's area.

APA

Beardsley, K., Gleditsch, K. S., & Lo, N. (n.d.). Roving Bandits? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a357fdc5-9371-46b9-a7e8-9f81d51724d9/Roving Bandits The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Beardsley, Kyle, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Nigel Lo. Roving Bandits? Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a357fdc5-9371-46b9-a7e8-9f81d51724d9/Roving Bandits The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Beardsley |first1=Kyle |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |last3=Lo |first3=Nigel |title=Roving Bandits? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a357fdc5-9371-46b9-a7e8-9f81d51724d9/Roving Bandits The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{beardsleyndroving, author = {Beardsley, Kyle and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Lo, Nigel}, title = {{Roving Bandits?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/a357fdc5-9371-46b9-a7e8-9f81d51724d9/Roving Bandits The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }