THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: HOW SAUDI ARABIA’S MULTIPLE ROLES IN YEMEN INFLUENCE MEDIATION EFFORTS

The document argues that the regionalization of the conflict in Yemen has created a fragmented mediation landscape where the United Nations' influence has diminished. Saudi Arabia's simultaneous roles as a conflict party and mediator have constrained the space for other actors and led to agreements that address immediate threats rather than underlying intra-Yemeni grievances. The author identifies a 'two-part dilemma' for mediators: deciding which actors to engage (regional rivals versus domestic parties) and determining whether to seek a narrow ceasefire or a comprehensive political solution. Ultimately, the paper concludes that military regionalization has impeded conflict ripeness, excluded non-armed civil society groups, and resulted in fragmented outcomes that fail to address the nature of the Yemeni state.

• Saudi Arabia occupies three simultaneous and potentially conflicting roles in the Yemen conflict: it is a major conflict actor supporting the Government of Yemen (GoY), a mediator (both individually and as the most influential member of the GCC), and one of the largest aid providers to the country.
• The regionalization of the conflict has diminished the United Nations' authority and room for manoeuvre, as domestic parties have increasingly bypassed UN mediators in favor of regional states or military force.
• Mediation efforts face a dilemma regarding which actors to prioritize: focusing on regional rivals (Saudi Arabia and Iran) may ignore underlying domestic conflicts, while focusing on domestic parties (Ansar Allah and the GoY) ignores the external military and financial dependencies that drive the war.
• Since 2020, Saudi Arabia's primary objective has shifted toward withdrawing from the conflict and achieving regional de-escalation to support its 'Vision 2030' economic transformation project, leading to direct talks with Ansar Allah facilitated by Oman.
• Regionalization has negatively impacted mediation in four specific ways: it impeded conflict ripeness by allowing actors to replenish military stocks; created an uncoordinated multi-mediator landscape; led to fragmented outcomes that ignore core state issues; and excluded non-armed groups from negotiations.
• The conflict has caused severe humanitarian and economic devastation, including the death of an estimated 377,000 people since 2015, the destruction of over one-third of critical infrastructure, and a real GDP contraction of approximately 50% between 2011 and 2021.

APA

Palik, J. (2024). THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: HOW SAUDI ARABIA’S MULTIPLE ROLES IN YEMEN INFLUENCE MEDIATION EFFORTS. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/506d971d-996a-4f49-a2bf-09aebaf4d9f1/FCDO grant case_Yemen.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Palik, Júlia. THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: HOW SAUDI ARABIA’S MULTIPLE ROLES IN YEMEN INFLUENCE MEDIATION EFFORTS. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/506d971d-996a-4f49-a2bf-09aebaf4d9f1/FCDO grant case_Yemen.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Palik |first1=Júlia |title=THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: HOW SAUDI ARABIA’S MULTIPLE ROLES IN YEMEN INFLUENCE MEDIATION EFFORTS |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=December 2024 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/506d971d-996a-4f49-a2bf-09aebaf4d9f1/FCDO grant case_Yemen.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{palik2024elephant, author = {Palik, Júlia}, title = {{THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: HOW SAUDI ARABIA’S MULTIPLE ROLES IN YEMEN INFLUENCE MEDIATION EFFORTS}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/506d971d-996a-4f49-a2bf-09aebaf4d9f1/FCDO grant case_Yemen.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }