A Tougher Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean

The report analyzes the climate-security nexus in the Eastern Mediterranean, identifying the region as a climate change hotspot where rising temperatures and water scarcity interact with fragile political structures. It highlights risks including domestic resource competition, potential conflicts over the Nile, Euphrates, and Tigris rivers, and increased migration toward Europe. The author argues that while conventional security threats currently dominate government agendas, the economic and physical impacts of climate change could trigger social unrest and regional instability. The report recommends increasing the visibility of economic risks to leaders and utilizing 'variable geometry' cooperation—combining inter-governmental frameworks like the Barcelona Convention with city-to-city and civil society networks—to foster regional adaptation.

• The Eastern Mediterranean is a climate change hotspot where temperatures are expected to rise faster than the global average, with potential peaks of 47°C by mid-century and nearly 50°C by 2100, potentially rendering parts of the region uninhabitable for humans.
• Water scarcity is a primary security concern, with Jordan currently far below the 'absolute scarcity' threshold of 500m³/year, having dropped from 3600m³/year in 1946 to 135m³/year.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represents a major national security threat to Egypt; a rapid three-year filling of the reservoir could potentially destroy 51 percent of Egypt's farmland.
• In the Euphrates-Tigris basin, climate forecasts predict a 19-58 percent decrease in mean annual discharge by the end of the century, which may intensify disputes as Turkey prioritizes its own domestic requirements.
• Climate-driven displacement in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly from Egypt's Nile Delta due to sea level rise and salt ingress, could trigger mass migration to Europe, potentially impacting EU politics and security.
• Domestic adaptation is often hindered by political elites and vested interests, such as the 'generator mafia' in Lebanon blocking energy sector restructuring or the coal lobby in Turkey.
• Israel has reduced its vulnerability to water scarcity through innovation and desalination, shifting the regional dynamic from a zero-sum game to one where it can sell water to neighbors like Jordan to reinforce security cooperation.
• The Gaza Strip faces a catastrophic water crisis, with its coastal aquifer expected to be irreversibly damaged by 2020, potentially making the area 'unliveable' within a few years.
• Regional governments often prioritize immediate conventional security threats—such as the war in Syria or militant operations in the Sinai—over long-term climate risks, which are frequently relegated to less powerful ministries.

APA

Sellwood, E. (2018). A Tougher Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/59d583bd-acfe-4d0f-8a3a-152a6e865f81/ESellwood A tougher climate in the Eastern Mediterranean.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Sellwood, Elizabeth. A Tougher Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2018. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/59d583bd-acfe-4d0f-8a3a-152a6e865f81/ESellwood A tougher climate in the Eastern Mediterranean.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sellwood |first1=Elizabeth |title=A Tougher Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2018 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/59d583bd-acfe-4d0f-8a3a-152a6e865f81/ESellwood A tougher climate in the Eastern Mediterranean.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sellwood2018tougher, author = {Sellwood, Elizabeth}, title = {{A Tougher Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2018}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/59d583bd-acfe-4d0f-8a3a-152a6e865f81/ESellwood A tougher climate in the Eastern Mediterranean.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }