ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS AND HARDLINE PUBLIC OPINION

The research employs two survey experiments with Japanese participants to test the application of group threat theory to international relations. The findings indicate that Japanese individuals adopt more hardline attitudes toward territorial and historical disputes with South Korea specifically when they perceive Japan's economic power is declining relative to South Korea's rising economy. The study concludes that this effect is triggered by the relative shift in economic power rather than the absolute decline of the ingroup or the rise of the outgroup alone.

• Japanese participants demonstrate more hardline attitudes regarding territorial and historical disputes with South Korea when they perceive their own country's economic power is declining relative to South Korea's.
• A hardline shift in public opinion is only triggered by the juxtaposition of an ingroup's economic decline and a rival outgroup's economic rise; neither a decline in the ingroup's status alone nor a rise in the outgroup's status alone produces this effect.
• The study found that the perceived threat to relative economic status significantly increased the probability of hardline responses regarding the Takeshima/Dokdo territory and the comfort women issue in the first experiment.
• The impact of group threat on public opinion varies based on issue salience: it affects general attitudes when an issue is not salient, but shifts toward more specific aspects of the issue as it becomes more salient.
• The research suggests that public opinion on international conflicts is driven by long-term rebalancing of economic power, making it resistant to short-term policy interventions.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (n.d.). ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS AND HARDLINE PUBLIC OPINION. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/de0b54fd-ce4a-4c5f-9663-f7226a543074/Economic Downturns and Hardline Public Opinion.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS AND HARDLINE PUBLIC OPINION. n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/de0b54fd-ce4a-4c5f-9663-f7226a543074/Economic Downturns and Hardline Public Opinion.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS AND HARDLINE PUBLIC OPINION |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/de0b54fd-ce4a-4c5f-9663-f7226a543074/Economic Downturns and Hardline Public Opinion.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslondeconomic, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS AND HARDLINE PUBLIC OPINION}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/de0b54fd-ce4a-4c5f-9663-f7226a543074/Economic Downturns and Hardline Public Opinion.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }