Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust in post-war Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland

This study examines how perceptions of peace agreements influence political trust in three post-war societies: Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland. Using a 2016 survey of 3,229 respondents, the authors find that approval of peace agreement provisions and the belief that these agreements have been implemented are positively associated with higher political trust. The analysis suggests that these perceptions provide significant explanatory power beyond conventional cultural and institutional theories of trust. Specifically, support for institutional reforms—such as demilitarization in Guatemala, federalization in Nepal, and power-sharing in Northern Ireland—serves as a primary driver of political trust.

• Approval of peace agreement provisions and the perception that they have been implemented are positively associated with higher levels of political trust across the studied cases.
• Accounting for perceptions of peace agreements increases the explained variance of political trust from 0.12 to 0.15, representing a 25 percent increase over conventional models.
• In Guatemala, political trust is primarily driven by support for security sector reforms, including civilian control over the army and the transformation of the National Police into the National Civil Police.
• In Nepal, political trust is strongly linked to support for fundamental state restructuring, such as abolishing the monarchy, creating a new constitution, and establishing a federal state.
• In Northern Ireland, trust is positively associated with support for the establishment of a devolved, democratically elected Assembly and a power-sharing Executive.
• Victimization by the state or pro-government militias is consistently associated with lower political trust, except in the case of Guatemala.
• A significant majority of respondents in Nepal (82.4%) and Guatemala (67.4%) believe their respective peace agreements have not been implemented as promised, compared to a minority (34.4%) in Northern Ireland.
• While conventional institutional explanations (like personal safety and economic development) and cultural explanations (like social trust) remain relevant, they are less influential than perceptions of the peace agreement in some contexts.

APA

Dyrstad, K., Bakke, K. M., & Binningsbø, H. M. (2021). Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust in post-war Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/85efb17b-e093-4efb-971d-dfee4cbb29b0/Dyrstad et al 2021 - Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust - postprint manuscript.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Dyrstad, Karin, Kristin M. Bakke, and Helga M. Binningsbø. Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust in post-war Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/85efb17b-e093-4efb-971d-dfee4cbb29b0/Dyrstad et al 2021 - Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust - postprint manuscript.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dyrstad |first1=Karin |last2=Bakke |first2=Kristin M. |last3=Binningsbø |first3=Helga M. |title=Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust in post-war Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=14 January 2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/85efb17b-e093-4efb-971d-dfee4cbb29b0/Dyrstad et al 2021 - Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust - postprint manuscript.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dyrstad2021perceptions, author = {Dyrstad, Karin and Bakke, Kristin M. and Binningsbø, Helga M.}, title = {{Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust in post-war Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/85efb17b-e093-4efb-971d-dfee4cbb29b0/Dyrstad et al 2021 - Perceptions of peace agreements and political trust - postprint manuscript.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }