Future Migration as Present Fact (FUMI) Survey Documentation

The FUMI Survey documentation describes a mixed-methods research project focusing on migration aspirations among young adults (18–39) in Serekunda (The Gambia), Tema (Ghana), and São Vicente (Cape Verde). The report details the design of a respondent-centred survey instrument, the three-step random sampling process used to reach 1,000 individuals per city, and the rigorous quality assurance measures implemented, including audio recordings and back-checks. It further explains the data cleaning workflows, the application of household and individual weights to correct for sampling biases, and the creation of a Composite Wealth Index using polychoric principal component analysis of assets and socio-economic indicators. The document also identifies specific coding errors that led to data gaps in variables related to passports, visas, and household contributions.

• The FUMI survey targeted young adults aged 18–39 in three West African urban areas: Serekunda (The Gambia), Tema (Ghana), and São Vicente (Cape Verde), with a target random sample of 1,000 individuals per location.
• The survey instrument was designed with a respondent-centred approach to minimize fatigue and enhance the conversational flow, avoiding long sequences of similar questions and minimizing the use of Likert scales.
• Data collection occurred between July 2022 and February 2023, utilizing face-to-face interviews on tablets. Average interview durations varied by city: 65 minutes in Serekunda, 50 minutes in Tema, and 45 minutes in São Vicente.
• Quality assurance included audio recording all interviews, supervisor accompaniment for 10% of interviews, and back-checking 10% of all interviews by comparing audio recordings with collected data.
• In Tema, Ghana, the quality assurance process identified significant issues, including "data fabrication" and "sub-standard interviews," which led to the dismissal of enumerators and a longer data collection period to replace affected interviews.
• Sampling outcomes showed that São Vicente had a higher rate of households without eligible members (aged 18–39) compared to the other cities, with 25% of households lacking a target group member.
• Analysis of non-response by house appearance indicated a potential socio-economic bias in São Vicente, where the proportion of conducted interviews fell from 78% in 'poor' houses to 29% in 'rich' houses.
• The researchers developed a Composite Wealth Index by averaging an Individual Wealth Index (based on phone status, hunger, liquidity, and land ownership) and a Household Wealth Index (based on durable goods, crowding, and water/toilet facilities).
• The Composite Wealth Index confirmed a general development gradient across the research sites, with means of 47.6 in Serekunda, 48.0 in Tema, and 52.2 in São Vicente, though differences within cities were larger than between them.
• Several coding errors in the survey instrument resulted in significant data gaps: 71–81% of data was lost for variables on passports, visas, and travel money as obstacles to migration, and 18% of data was lost for household expense contributions.

APA

Carling, J., Caso, N., & Karl, E. Z. (2025). Future Migration as Present Fact (FUMI) Survey Documentation. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/43c72416-1740-4f9c-80a0-747ed6c5d4dd/Carling-et-al-2025-FUMI-Survey-Documentation-v1.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Carling, Jørgen, Nicolás Caso, and Elinor Zoë Karl. Future Migration as Present Fact (FUMI) Survey Documentation. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2025. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/43c72416-1740-4f9c-80a0-747ed6c5d4dd/Carling-et-al-2025-FUMI-Survey-Documentation-v1.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carling |first1=Jørgen |last2=Caso |first2=Nicolás |last3=Karl |first3=Elinor Zoë |title=Future Migration as Present Fact (FUMI) Survey Documentation |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=February 2025 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/43c72416-1740-4f9c-80a0-747ed6c5d4dd/Carling-et-al-2025-FUMI-Survey-Documentation-v1.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carling2025future, author = {Carling, Jørgen and Caso, Nicolás and Karl, Elinor Zoë}, title = {{Future Migration as Present Fact (FUMI) Survey Documentation}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2025}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/43c72416-1740-4f9c-80a0-747ed6c5d4dd/Carling-et-al-2025-FUMI-Survey-Documentation-v1.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }