Can development assistance prevent conflict?

The report examines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) prevents or exacerbates violent conflict. A systematic review of 20 studies indicates that while assistance can foster stability by improving livelihoods and accountable governance, it can also fuel violence by creating 'prizes' for elite capture or provoking insurgent backlash. Case studies of South Sudan and Mozambique highlight a contrast between fragmented states and capable but exclusionary states, suggesting that prevention strategies must be tailored to the specific institutional context. The authors recommend shifting from externally imposed state-building models toward community-driven initiatives and inclusive governance reforms.

• Development assistance can unintentionally increase violence by creating valuable 'prizes' that governments, rebels, and elites compete to control, particularly when funding is concentrated in specific areas.
• Stabilizing effects of development assistance typically occur through two pathways: improving material well-being and economic security to reduce the appeal of armed groups, and enhancing governance to increase state legitimacy and provide peaceful political participation.
• A systematic review of 20 studies found that approximately 40% of the research indicates development assistance increases violence, while 35% report mixed effects, 15% report a reduction in violence, and 10% find no effect.
• In South Sudan, traditional and customary mechanisms, such as chiefs' courts, often demonstrate greater effectiveness and legitimacy in resolving local conflicts than formal justice systems.
• South Sudan's conflict prevention is hindered by a 'capability trap paradox' where billions in assistance for capacity building fail because the government 'looks like a state' but does not perform as one due to corruption and authoritarianism.
• Mozambique exhibits a 'strong-state paradox' where a capable state apparatus prevents total collapse but uses its centralization to monopolize power and exclude opposition, thereby perpetuating fragility.
• The 2019 Maputo Accord in Mozambique is cited as a success in violence reduction because the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) process was nationally led but internationally guaranteed.
• In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, military stabilization by Rwandan and SADC forces provided temporary security, but development efforts via the Agency for Integrated Development of the North (ADIN) have been limited, with less than 20% of planned projects completed by late 2023.
• Global Official Development Assistance (ODA) fell by more than 7% in 2024, with sub-Saharan Africa facing potential declines of 1628%.
• Effective conflict prevention requires a shift from externally imposed state-building models toward localized, accountable approaches and the empowerment of local actors.

APA

Rustad, S. A., Palik, J., Rolandsen, Ø. H., & Rudolfsen, K. (2025). Can development assistance prevent conflict? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1956b78f-8edc-44a0-b3fd-28d5a47ac484/Can development assistance prevent conflict PRIO Paper 2025.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas, Júlia Palik, Øystein H. Rolandsen, and Kathrine Rudolfsen. Can development assistance prevent conflict? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2025. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1956b78f-8edc-44a0-b3fd-28d5a47ac484/Can development assistance prevent conflict PRIO Paper 2025.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{rustad2025can, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas and Palik, Júlia and Rolandsen, Øystein H. and Rudolfsen, Kathrine}, title = {{Can development assistance prevent conflict?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2025}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1956b78f-8edc-44a0-b3fd-28d5a47ac484/Can development assistance prevent conflict PRIO Paper 2025.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }