A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security: Cambodia, 2002-2004

The study analyzes conflict rates in over 1,600 Cambodian communes to identify how war legacy, poverty, urbanity, and governance quality influence violence. Using semi-parametric Bayesian models, the authors find that many relationships are non-linear, with specific socio-economic thresholds triggering significant changes in conflict rates. Notably, governance improvements only significantly reduce violence at very high levels of service provision, and rapid population growth strongly correlates with increased domestic and land conflicts. Spatial effects are found to be the strongest predictors, suggesting that unobserved, spatially correlated factors—such as the demographic impact of genocide—play a critical role in human security.

• The legacy of war continues to influence conflict, though its effects vary by type. Landmine and unexploded ordnance contamination has a significantly positive, albeit small, linear effect on all three conflict rates, with the strongest impact on land conflicts.
• The impact of US bombing intensity is non-linear and most evident at extremes. Communes that were not bombarded have significantly lower rates of domestic violence and serious crime, while those with the highest bombing intensity show an approximate 25 percent increase in land conflicts.
• Rapid population growth between 1998 and 2002 is a strong predictor of violence, with a steep increase in conflict rates occurring once population growth crosses a threshold of approximately 25 percent.
• Population density has strong, non-linear, and divergent effects across conflict types. While land conflict rates are lower in sparsely populated areas and flatten out at higher densities, serious crime rates soar specifically in the high-density range, starting at roughly 300 persons per sq km.
• Governance quality, measured by safe water access and girls' school enrolment, shows a non-linear 'inverted U' effect. Conflict-reducing effects only become significant at very high levels of provision, which are currently achieved by only about one-fifth of communes.
• Male literacy has a significantly negative linear association with domestic violence, but no significant association with land conflicts or serious crime.
• Spatially structured effects at the commune level are the strongest predictors of conflict across all models, outweighing the effects of individual socio-economic covariates.
• There is a stronger spatial correlation between domestic violence and land conflicts than there is between either of those and serious crime.

APA

Benini, A., Owen, T., & Rue, H. (2006). A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security: Cambodia, 2002-2004. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2fb89a52-ce39-4393-ae2a-7f34d06a245e/A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security Cambodia 2002-2004.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Benini, Aldo, Taylor Owen, and Håvard Rue. A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security: Cambodia, 2002-2004. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2006. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2fb89a52-ce39-4393-ae2a-7f34d06a245e/A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security Cambodia 2002-2004.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Benini |first1=Aldo |last2=Owen |first2=Taylor |last3=Rue |first3=Håvard |title=A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security: Cambodia, 2002-2004 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=29 June 2006 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2fb89a52-ce39-4393-ae2a-7f34d06a245e/A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security Cambodia 2002-2004.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{benini2006semiparametric, author = {Benini, Aldo and Owen, Taylor and Rue, Håvard}, title = {{A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security: Cambodia, 2002-2004}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2006}, month = jun, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2fb89a52-ce39-4393-ae2a-7f34d06a245e/A Semi-Parametric Spatial Regression Approach to Post-War Human Security Cambodia 2002-2004.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }