Glasgow sectoral initiatives currently close the 2030 emissions gap by 9%

The briefing finds that sectoral pledges on methane, coal, transport, and deforestation could close the 2030 emissions gap by approximately 9% (2.2 GtCO2e), though global emissions would still remain nearly twice as high as necessary for a 1.5°C pathway. The Global Methane Pledge and the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use offer the highest likely impacts, while the coal and electric vehicle initiatives provide minimal additional reductions due to limited signatory participation or delayed phase-out timelines.

• The combined likely impact of the four sectoral initiatives announced at COP26—covering methane, coal exit, transport, and deforestation—is a reduction of the 2030 emissions gap by approximately 9%, equivalent to 2.2 GtCO2e. When combined with NDC updates, the total reduction in the 2030 emissions gap is estimated at 24–25%.
• The Global Methane Pledge (GMP), which aims to reduce anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030, is expected to deliver a likely impact of 0.8 GtCO2e (range 0.6–1.1 GtCO2e) in additional reductions by 2030. If non-signatories such as China, India, and Russia joined, the potential reduction could reach 1.4–2.4 GtCO2e.
• The Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, signed by over 100 leaders to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, has a likely impact of 1.1 GtCO2 of additional reductions. The maximum potential is estimated at 2-3 GtCO2 if all countries signed up, though the author notes that Indonesia reversed its decision and Brazil's updated NDC lacks a deforestation target.
• The Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement is estimated to deliver only 0.2 GtCO2e in additional reductions by 2030. This low impact is attributed to the fact that phase-outs for major economies are targeted for the 2030s, and several countries with large coal pipelines, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Botswana, excluded the clause regarding the cessation of new permits and construction.
• The declaration to accelerate the transition to 100% zero emission cars and vans is expected to deliver less than 0.1 GtCO2e in additional reductions by 2030. This is largely because major automobile manufacturing nations, including the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and France, have not signed the declaration.
• Despite the new sectoral initiatives and NDC updates, global emissions in 2030 are projected to be nearly double the levels required for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

APA

Gidden, M., Geiges, A., Attard, M.-C., Ganti, G., Coetzee, K., Stockwell, C., & Hare, B. (2021). Glasgow sectoral initiatives currently close the 2030 emissions gap by 9%. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1002/CAT_2021-11-11_Briefing_GlasgowSectorInitiatives.pdf

Chicago

Gidden, Matthew, Andreas Geiges, Marie-Camille Attard, Gaurav Ganti, Kim Coetzee, Claire Stockwell, and Bill Hare. Glasgow sectoral initiatives currently close the 2030 emissions gap by 9%. NewClimate Institute, 2021. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1002/CAT_2021-11-11_Briefing_GlasgowSectorInitiatives.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{gidden2021glasgow, author = {Gidden, Matthew and Geiges, Andreas and Attard, Marie-Camille and Ganti, Gaurav and Coetzee, Kim and Stockwell, Claire and Hare, Bill}, title = {{Glasgow sectoral initiatives currently close the 2030 emissions gap by 9\%}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1002/CAT_2021-11-11_Briefing_GlasgowSectorInitiatives.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }