Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update

The 2023 update report by the NewClimate Institute analyzes projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 2030 for 25 countries, comparing current policy outcomes against Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While aggregated emissions projections remain stable, the report identifies significant shifts in individual countries and a persistent gap between current policies and the 43% reduction required for Paris Agreement alignment.

• Projections for 25 analyzed countries indicate that GHG emissions roughly plateaued or slightly increased between 2021 and 2022. Full implementation of current policies is projected to result in 2030 emissions between -6% and +8% compared to 2019 levels, which fails to reach the 43% reduction aligned with the Paris Agreement.
• Individual country projections have shifted since the 2022 report: the United States and European Union show reduced projected emissions due to the Inflation Reduction Act and the Fit for 55/REpowerEU policies, respectively. Conversely, projections for the United Kingdom have increased due to insufficient policy implementation, and Indonesia's projections have risen because of increased coal use between 2021 and 2022 and a pipeline of coal-fired power plants.
• Thirteen countries are now considered on track to meet their latest NDC targets. Eleven are clearly on track: China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Viet Nam. Australia and the European Union are also likely on track, with the EU relying on EU-level policies and Australia relying on a combination of national and state-level policies.
• Twelve of the analyzed countries maintain an implementation gap, meaning they must adopt further policies or improve the implementation of existing ones to reach their NDC targets.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2023). Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update. 2023. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update |date=15 November 2023 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2023emissions, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }