Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update

The 2023 update finds that while current policies for 25 major economies may result in 2030 emissions between -6% and +8% compared to 2019 levels, this falls short of the 43% reduction aligned with the Paris Agreement. While 13 countries are now on track to meet their NDC targets, 12 countries still face an implementation gap.

• Current policies across the 25 analysed countries are projected to result in 2030 emissions that are between 6% lower and 8% higher than 2019 levels, which does not meet the 43% reduction required for alignment with the Paris Agreement.
• Thirteen countries are currently on track or likely on track to meet their NDC targets. Those clearly on track include China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Viet Nam, while Australia and the European Union are now considered likely on track.
• Twelve of the analysed countries have an implementation gap, meaning they must adopt further policies or improve the execution of existing ones to reach their NDC targets.
• Recent policy developments have caused divergent emission projections: the United States and European Union have seen reductions due to the Inflation Reduction Act and Fit for 55/REpowerEU respectively, whereas projections for the United Kingdom have increased due to insufficient implementation and Indonesia's have risen due to increased coal use.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2023). Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update. 2023. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update |date=15 November 2023 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2023emissions, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }