Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 44

The document analyzes a November 2012 incident where 42 Kenyan police officers were killed by Turkana cattle raiders, framing this as part of a broader pattern of insecurity. It argues that climate change acts as a trigger for resource-based conflicts over land and water, particularly in Kenya's driest regions, leading to increased ethnic clashes and social insecurity. The briefing suggests that traditional nomadic lifestyles are no longer sustainable and proposes climate change adaptation through the settlement of pastoralist communities, economic shifts, and the use of traditional dispute resolution mechanisms rather than military responses.

• On 14 November 2012, 42 Kenyan police officers were killed by armed cattle raiders from the Turkana tribe in Baragoi, Samburu North District, following suspected cattle theft from the Samburu tribe.
• Climate change is identified as a driver of insecurity in Kenya, increasing resource-based conflicts over land and water and acting as a trigger that fuels ethnic clashes due to the marginalization of communities regarding resource access and power.
• Severe drought resulting from climate change has rendered the traditional nomadic lifestyle of pastoralists in northern Kenya unsustainable, as they can no longer return to home areas after searching for grazing land.
• The document argues that military responses are ineffective for resolving these disputes; instead, it recommends climate change adaptation through settling pastoralist communities, shifting economic dynamics, and implementing traditional dispute resolution based on negotiation and compromise.

APA

Zounmenou, D., Atta-Asamoah, A., Motsamai, D., Dzinesa, G. A., Kok, N., & Warries, T. (2012). Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 44. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_16_Nov.pdf

Chicago

Zounmenou, David, Andrew Atta-Asamoah, Dimpho Motsamai, Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa, Naomi Kok, and Tarryn Warries. Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 44. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_16_Nov.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |last2=Atta-Asamoah |first2=Andrew |last3=Motsamai |first3=Dimpho |last4=Dzinesa |first4=Gwinyayi A. |last5=Kok |first5=Naomi |last6=Warries |first6=Tarryn |title=Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 44 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 November 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_16_Nov.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2012conflict, author = {Zounmenou, David and Atta-Asamoah, Andrew and Motsamai, Dimpho and Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A. and Kok, Naomi and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 44}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_16_Nov.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }