Unlocking Africa’s potential

The paper argues that effective governance is a primary determinant of poverty reduction in Africa. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, it demonstrates that improving governance effectiveness (aligned with SDG 16.6) would lift more than 60 million people out of poverty by 2050, outperforming other targeted health and sanitation interventions.

• Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest number of people living in extreme poverty globally in 2015 and was one of only two regions, alongside the Middle East, where the absolute number of people in extreme poverty increased between 1990 and 2015.
• Economic growth alone is insufficient for poverty alleviation; the paper notes that in Nigeria, strong average GDP growth of 7.7% during the MDG period occurred alongside a poverty increase of approximately 5%.
• The 'Unlocking the Future' scenario, which models improved governance effectiveness by 2030, is forecast to lift over 60 million people out of poverty in Africa by 2050 and accelerate the peak of poverty to 2037, compared to 2039 on the Current Path.
• Improving governance effectiveness has a more powerful impact on poverty reduction than other SDG-related interventions; it lifts more people out of poverty than the combined effects of eliminating communicable diseases and providing universal sanitation.
• Under the 'Unlocking the Future' scenario, high-poverty countries (those with over 50% poverty in 2015) experience the most significant poverty reduction, with over 30 million fewer people in extreme poverty by 2050.
• Improved governance effectiveness is forecast to generate significant economic and health gains by 2050, including a combined GDP increase of over US$1.1 trillion for high and medium poverty groups and a reduction in infant mortality by nearly 2 deaths per thousand live births.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to remain the region with the least effective governance globally through 2030 on its Current Path, and is expected to account for over 65% of global extreme poverty by 2030, up from 45% in 2015.

APA

Aucoin, C., & Donnenfeld, Z. (2016). Unlocking Africa’s potential. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af21.pdf

Chicago

Aucoin, Ciara, and Zachary Donnenfeld. Unlocking Africa’s potential. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af21.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aucoin |first1=Ciara |last2=Donnenfeld |first2=Zachary |title=Unlocking Africa’s potential |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af21.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aucoin2016unlocking, author = {Aucoin, Ciara and Donnenfeld, Zachary}, title = {{Unlocking Africa’s potential}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af21.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }