Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance

Following the 29 March 2008 elections, Zimbabwe entered a period of high tension as the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) withheld presidential results. The country is described as politically polarised between ZANU-PF's focus on regime security and the MDC's focus on good governance. The authors highlight a severe economic meltdown characterized by inflation exceeding 100,000 percent and widespread shortages. The briefing outlines five possible scenarios: a run-off election, Mugabe conceding via a transitional government, a state-led clampdown, an outright Tsvangirai victory, or an outright Mugabe victory. The authors argue that the international community's peace and security architectures are ill-equipped for such crises and recommend the deployment of more international observers and technical expertise for the ZEC.

• The 29 March 2008 harmonised elections resulted in a political stalemate because the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) withheld presidential results, leading to suspicions that ZANU-PF was manipulating the outcome.
• Zimbabwe is deeply polarised between two competing narratives: ZANU-PF's focus on "sovereignty, land and empowerment" and regime security, and the opposition's focus on democratisation, human security, and good governance.
• The country has suffered a severe economic collapse characterized by unemployment, food and water shortages, and hyperinflation exceeding 100,000 percent.
• The authors identify five potential outcomes of the stalemate: a run-off election (potentially marked by ZANU-PF violence), a face-saving exit by Mugabe via a transitional government, a state of emergency clampdown, an outright victory for Morgan Tsvangirai, or an outright victory for Robert Mugabe.
• The international community is viewed as helpless and ill-equipped to handle the situation, as its existing peace and security tools have failed in similar contexts in Kenya and Nigeria.

APA

Hendricks, C., & Maroleng, C. (2008). Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/09-apr-2008-iss-today-zimbabwes-future-in-the-balance

Chicago

Hendricks, Cheryl, and Chris Maroleng. Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance. Institute for Security Studies, 2008. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/09-apr-2008-iss-today-zimbabwes-future-in-the-balance.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hendricks |first1=Cheryl |last2=Maroleng |first2=Chris |title=Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 April 2008 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/09-apr-2008-iss-today-zimbabwes-future-in-the-balance |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hendricks2008zimbabwes, author = {Hendricks, Cheryl and Maroleng, Chris}, title = {{Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/09-apr-2008-iss-today-zimbabwes-future-in-the-balance}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }