Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political instability in Guinea-Bissau leading up to the March 2019 legislative elections. It argues that while elections are a step toward legitimacy, long-term stability requires deep institutional reforms to address the structural weaknesses and constitutional ambiguities that fueled the 2015 political crisis.

• The legislative elections scheduled for 10 March 2019 are expected to clarify the political landscape and enable the formation of a legitimate government, but they are insufficient on their own to ensure long-term stability.
• The political crisis that began in August 2015 was driven by both leadership conflicts and fundamental institutional failures, specifically a lack of constitutional clarity regarding the shared executive powers of the president and the prime minister.
• The Conakry Agreement, signed on 14 October 2016 to end the political impasse, faced significant implementation challenges due to divergent interpretations by political actors and the appointment of prime ministers who lacked consensus.
• The 10 March 2019 election faced logistical and financial hurdles, including a budget of $7.7 million that was not finalized on time and delays in the delivery of voter registration kits from Nigeria, which postponed the original November 2018 date.
• A Stability Pact adopted on 14 February 2018 by 21 political parties aims to prevent future crises by committing signatories to respect election results and implement reforms across the constitution, electoral laws, the judiciary, and the security sector.
• Essential institutional reforms needed for stability include granting the National Electoral Commission financial autonomy, reforming the poorly implemented 1991 Framework Law on political parties, and reviving the 2015–2019 Justice Reform Programme.
• The modernization of the defense and security sector remains a priority, though various strategies developed since 2006 have failed to be implemented due to financial constraints and political instability.

APA

Toupane, P. M., Kanté, A., & Faye, A. K. (2019). Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf

Chicago

Toupane, Paulin Maurice, Aïssatou Kanté, and Adja Khadidiatou Faye. Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Toupane |first1=Paulin Maurice |last2=Kanté |first2=Aïssatou |last3=Faye |first3=Adja Khadidiatou |title=Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{toupane2019guineabissau, author = {Toupane, Paulin Maurice and Kanté, Aïssatou and Faye, Adja Khadidiatou}, title = {{Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }