Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability

The report examines the recurring political crises in Guinea-Bissau, specifically the 2015 crisis triggered by the dissolution of Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira's government by President José Mário Vaz. It argues that instability stems from institutional weaknesses, including a lack of constitutional clarity regarding the roles of the president and prime minister in a semi-presidential system. While the March 10, 2019, legislative elections are seen as a step toward legitimacy, the authors contend they are insufficient without the implementation of the Stability Pact and reforms to the constitution, electoral laws, political party regulation, the judiciary, and the security sector. The document also details the role of ECOWAS in mediating the crisis through the Conakry Agreement and the use of targeted sanctions to pressure political actors toward a resolution.

• The legislative elections scheduled for 10 March 2019 are expected to clarify the political landscape and enable the formation of a legitimate government, but they alone cannot guarantee long-term stability.
• The 2015 political crisis was driven by both leadership conflicts and systemic institutional failures, particularly the lack of clear delineation in the Constitution between the powers of the president and the prime minister.
• The Conakry Agreement, intended to end the political impasse, initially increased divisions among political actors due to divergent interpretations and contradictions with the Constitution regarding the appointment of the prime minister.
• ECOWAS sanctions imposed on 4 February 2018 against 19 individuals—including deputies and associates of the president—served as a turning point that pressured political actors to resolve the crisis.
• The 2019 electoral process faced significant challenges, including a budget of $7.7 million that was not finalised on time and delays in the delivery of voter registration kits from Nigeria, which led to the postponement of the election from November 2018 to March 2019.
• The Stability Pact adopted on 14 February 2018 is a critical tool for preventing future crises, as it commits 21 political parties to respect election results and implement reforms across the constitution, electoral laws, judiciary, and security sectors.
• Long-term stability requires specific structural reforms: granting the National Electoral Commission financial autonomy, strengthening the regulation of political parties, reviving the 2015–2019 Justice Reform Programme, and modernising the defence and security sector.

APA

Toupane, P. M., Kanté, A., & Faye, A. K. (2019). Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf

Chicago

Toupane, Paulin Maurice, Aïssatou Kanté, and Adja Khadidiatou Faye. Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Toupane |first1=Paulin Maurice |last2=Kanté |first2=Aïssatou |last3=Faye |first3=Adja Khadidiatou |title=Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{toupane2019guineabissau, author = {Toupane, Paulin Maurice and Kanté, Aïssatou and Faye, Adja Khadidiatou}, title = {{Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }