The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa

The report examines the complex interplay of governance, peace, and security in the Horn of Africa, highlighting a shift from interstate to intra-state conflict. It analyzes how structural drivers—including climate change, demographic pressures, and technological advances—interact with political instability and geopolitical competition from global and Middle Eastern powers. The document evaluates the effectiveness of multilateral bodies like IGAD, the AU, and the UN, noting their struggles to maintain relevance amidst hardening state sovereignty and institutional fragility.

• The Horn of Africa has seen a transition in the nature of conflict, where interstate violence has decreased but intra-state violence has peaked, particularly through communal clashes. This has established the region as one of the primary global producers of refugees and internally displaced persons.
• Demographic trends are creating significant social pressure, with 70% of the population aged 35 or younger. While this youth bulge has potential for development, it often leads to political tension and instability when governments fail to provide employment or inclusive political spaces, particularly in borderlands.
• Climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in the region, with 2022 seeing food insecurity affect approximately 50.8 million people across Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. This environmental stress interacts with economic and demographic forces to trigger humanitarian emergencies and livestock deaths.
• Information and communication technology (ICT) is being used by governments for both improving service delivery and increasing state control. While mobile money and digital services enhance financial inclusivity, governments are also deploying technology for digital surveillance, disinformation, and the restriction of civic space.
• The region is a site of intense geostrategic competition. Middle Eastern powers (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey) and global powers (USA, China, and Russia) compete for influence through military bases, agricultural investments, and infrastructure projects like China's Belt and Road Initiative.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a primary source of regional tension, pitting Ethiopia against Egypt and Sudan. The dispute centers on water user rights and the Blue Nile, reflecting broader conflicts over transboundary resources and the right to development.
• Multilateralism in the region is currently 'at a crossroads.' IGAD is often viewed as ineffective due to a lack of capacity and nationalistic tendencies of member states. The AU is hampered by its reverence for member state sovereignty and financial dependencies, while the UN faces political paralysis in the Security Council due to superpower rivalries.
• Governance in the region is characterized by a 'legitimacy deficit' and 'popularity deficiency,' where power is concentrated in the executive. This void is sometimes filled by non-state actors; for example, Al-Shabaab provides services in areas of Somalia where the government is absent.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2023). The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/special-report-june-2023.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa. 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/special-report-june-2023.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa |date=June 2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/special-report-june-2023.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2023state, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The State of Governance, Peace and Security in the Horn of Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/special-report-june-2023.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }