Elections in a time of instability

This report analyzes the political and security crisis in Lesotho leading up to the February 2015 snap elections. It examines the structural causes of instability, including the politicization of security forces, the failure of coalition governments, and the limitations of the Mixed Member Parallel electoral system. The document also evaluates the role of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in mediating the crisis and concludes that elections alone are unlikely to resolve the country's cyclical patterns of violence and institutional fragility.

• Lesotho has a long history of political instability characterized by frequent military interventions and violent contestation for power. Since independence in 1966, the country has experienced four military coups d'état that resulted in changes of government, as well as two attempted coups.
• The transition from the First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral model to the Mixed Member Parallel (MMP) system in 2002 succeeded in preventing one-party dominance in the National Assembly but failed to change the country's violent political culture. The MMP system is described as more complex to manage, and its application has not prevented post-election instability or the persistence of party splits caused by internal power struggles.
• The 2012 three-party coalition government (ABC, LCD, and BNP) was inherently unstable due to a narrow one-seat majority and a lack of shared policy goals, functioning instead as a 'marriage of convenience' based on anti-Mosisili sentiment. The coalition collapsed in June 2014 after the LCD formed a new alliance with the Democratic Congress (DC).
• A critical driver of the 2014 crisis was the dismissal of Lesotho Defence Force (LDF) Commander Tlali Kamoli on 29 August 2014. This led to an attempted coup where military forces invaded police stations and the residences of senior government officials, including the prime minister, who subsequently fled to South Africa.
• The SADC mediation process succeeded in restoring short-term constitutional normalcy by facilitating the February 2015 elections, but it faced several criticisms. These included a perceived over-reliance on South Africa, a lack of transparency regarding the deployment of the South African Police Service (SAPS), and a failure to address the root causes of the conflict or include non-state actors.
• The report concludes that the 2015 elections are unlikely to end the cycle of instability because they do not resolve deep-seated rivalries or the systemic politicization of security institutions. The military's continued involvement in politics is viewed as a symptom of a malfunctioning political system where security forces are drawn into high-level disputes.

APA

Motsamai, D. (2015). Elections in a time of instability. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SAReport-Issue3.pdf

Chicago

Motsamai, Dimpho. Elections in a time of instability. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SAReport-Issue3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Motsamai |first1=Dimpho |title=Elections in a time of instability |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SAReport-Issue3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{motsamai2015elections, author = {Motsamai, Dimpho}, title = {{Elections in a time of instability}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SAReport-Issue3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }