Peace and Security Council Report

The September 2012 Peace and Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides analysis on early warning issues in Africa, focusing on the electoral risks in Kenya, the democratic transition in Egypt, and a retrospective of the 19th African Union (AU) Summit.

• Kenya's 2013 general elections are viewed as highly complex and potentially polarising, with risks of political violence similar to the 2007-2008 period. Factors that may mitigate violence include the country's experience with the International Criminal Court (ICC) and reforms to the judiciary and electoral body, though ethnic mobilisation remains a threat.
• The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected to influence Kenya's electoral outcome, as two key contenders, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, have been accused of responsibility for the 2007-2008 post-election violence. This has led to legal challenges regarding their eligibility to run for president under the new Constitution's integrity provisions.
• In Egypt, President Mohamed Morsi's removal of Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi and other military leaders in August 2012 marked a shift in the civil-military balance of power. While some see this as a step toward a civilian state, others fear it consolidates power for the Muslim Brotherhood in the absence of a parliament or constitution.
• Egypt's economy is struggling following the revolution, with GDP growth falling to 2 per cent in the 2011/12 financial year. The state has spent over half of its foreign reserves to support the currency and faces difficulties importing fuel due to a lack of financing from foreign banks and traders.
• The 19th AU Summit resulted in the election of Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as the first female Chairperson of the AU Commission, ending a deadlock from the January 2012 elections. Her election is seen as a victory for gender equality and a challenge to the unwritten rule that 'Big Five' countries should not provide candidates for the role.
• The AU is heavily dependent on external funding, with member states contributing less than half of the budget. For the 2013 budget of US$ 278,226,622, member states were expected to contribute only US$ 122,866,637, leaving more than half to be sourced externally.
• The AU Assembly reaffirmed its commitment to the territorial integrity of Mali and endorsed the deployment of a military mission to address the Tuareg rebellion in the north. The AU also demanded the dissolution of the military junta (CNRDRE) and the formation of a government of national unity by 31 July 2012.
• Sudan and South Sudan signed the Agreement on Friendly Relations and Cooperation (AFRC) in July 2012 to resolve post-secession issues, including security and oil pipeline transportation fees. However, progress on the definition of the Safe Demilitarized Border Zone (SDBZ) has been slow.
• The AU Assembly expressed support for the DRC government's efforts to restore peace in the east and agreed to the deployment of a neutral international force to eradicate the M23, FDLR, and other negative forces in North Kivu.
• The AU aims to establish a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) by 2017 to boost intra-African trade, which accounted for only 11 per cent of Africa's total trade in 2010. Success depends on addressing significant infrastructure gaps in roads, rail, ports, and energy.

APA

Kent-Brown, D., Okeke, J. M., Dersso, S. A., Lulie, H., Kisiangani, E., & Mashaka, L. (2012). Peace and Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC38Sep2012ENG.pdf

Chicago

Kent-Brown, Duke, Jide Martyns Okeke, Solomon Ayele Dersso, Hallelujah Lulie, Emmanuel Kisiangani, and Lewela Mashaka. Peace and Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC38Sep2012ENG.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kent-Brown |first1=Duke |last2=Okeke |first2=Jide Martyns |last3=Dersso |first3=Solomon Ayele |last4=Lulie |first4=Hallelujah |last5=Kisiangani |first5=Emmanuel |last6=Mashaka |first6=Lewela |title=Peace and Security Council Report |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC38Sep2012ENG.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kentbrown2012peace, author = {Kent-Brown, Duke and Okeke, Jide Martyns and Dersso, Solomon Ayele and Lulie, Hallelujah and Kisiangani, Emmanuel and Mashaka, Lewela}, title = {{Peace and Security Council Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC38Sep2012ENG.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }