ZIMBABWE From a global (dis)agreement to free and fair elections?

This policy brief analyzes the political transition in Zimbabwe as of December 2010, focusing on the challenges of the Interim Government (IG) and the likelihood of elections in 2011. It evaluates the role of the security sector, the efficacy of international sanctions, and the mediation efforts of South Africa and SADC, while proposing three potential scenarios for the country's future.

• The transition process in Zimbabwe is hindered by a lack of alignment in motives among the parties of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) and a perceived lack of consistency in the mediation approach of South African President Jacob Zuma.
• The Joint Operations Command (JOC) and high-ranking military officers maintain significant influence over ZANU-PF decision-making and state-owned companies, acting as potential spoilers to the transition due to their fear of prosecution for crimes committed during the 2008 elections.
• The constitution-making process is behind schedule, making it unlikely that elections will occur under a new constitution by early 2011. However, the GPA does not explicitly require a new constitution to be in place before elections are held.
• The document outlines three scenarios for 2011: elections following full GPA implementation (best-case), elections without full implementation (more likely), or postponed elections to allow for state-rebuilding processes like land audits and security sector transformation (most promising).
• There is a high risk that elections held in 2011, regardless of GPA implementation, will be accompanied by violence and intimidation to ensure a ZANU-PF victory, as the security sector remains loyal to the former liberation movement.
• The brief recommends that SADC mediators cultivate 'political will' through a step-by-step process, overhaul the institutional culture of the security forces to make them apolitical, and engage in consultations between 'Western' states and SADC to resolve the deadlock over sanctions.

APA

Smith-Höhn, J. (2010). ZIMBABWE From a global (dis)agreement to free and fair elections? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policybrief21.pdf

Chicago

Smith-Höhn, Judy. ZIMBABWE From a global (dis)agreement to free and fair elections? Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policybrief21.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Smith-Höhn |first1=Judy |title=ZIMBABWE From a global (dis)agreement to free and fair elections? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2010 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policybrief21.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{smithhhn2010zimbabwe, author = {Smith-Höhn, Judy}, title = {{ZIMBABWE From a global (dis)agreement to free and fair elections?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policybrief21.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }