polbrief61_aug14-cc6c5148babdcb5f.pdf

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes voter participation and the outcomes of South Africa's May 2014 national and provincial elections. It highlights a steady decline in electoral participation since 1994, particularly among youth and rural populations, and examines the shifting political landscape as the African National Congress (ANC) faces reduced majorities in urban centers like Gauteng.

• Voter registration levels in 2014 were lower than official figures suggested due to outdated population data. While the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) reported an 81% registration level based on 2011 census data, using 2013 population estimates of 32.7 million eligible voters reveals the actual registration level was 78%, meaning over 7 million people remained unregistered.
• There is a significant registration gap among young voters. Eligible voters aged 18 to 29 comprised 34% of the voting age population (10.9 million people), but only 6.4 million were registered. Registration for the 18-19 age group was only 33%, and for the 18-29 group, it was 59%, which is noticeably lower than older age groups.
• Voter turnout has declined over two decades. Turnout as a proportion of the voting-age population fell from 86% in 1994 to 57% in 2014. In the 2014 elections, the turnout of registered voters was 73%, a 4% decrease compared to the 77% turnout seen in the previous two elections.
• A shift in turnout patterns indicates that urban voters are more mobilized than rural voters. In 2014, the highest turnout rates were in populous provinces with large urban centers—Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape—while rural voters withdrew at higher rates due to disillusionment and a lack of visible opposition alternatives to the ANC.
• The 2014 national election results showed a decisive but diminished victory for the ANC, which won 62.2% of the vote and 249 seats. The Democratic Alliance (DA) secured 22.2% of the vote (89 seats), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) established itself as the third-largest party with 6.4% of the vote (25 seats).
• The ANC's hold on Gauteng province became precarious in 2014, as its share of the vote dropped from 64.0% to 53.6%, retaining the province by only a small margin. This is attributed to the province being a diverse, urbanized economic hub where the DA and EFF gained more traction.
• Gender representation in the national parliament declined in 2014. Women made up 42% of members of parliament (166 members), down from 45% in 2009. This decline is linked to the ANC losing seats and the fact that no other party uses a gender quota.
• The author recommends introducing an automatic voter registration system to address youth registration, using the latest Statistics South Africa population estimates for VAP calculations, and implementing a 1% threshold in the proportional representation system to limit the proliferation of small parties.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). polbrief61_aug14-cc6c5148babdcb5f.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief61_Aug14.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. polbrief61_aug14-cc6c5148babdcb5f.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief61_Aug14.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=polbrief61_aug14-cc6c5148babdcb5f.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief61_Aug14.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndpolbrief61aug14cc6c5148babdcb5fpdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{polbrief61\_aug14-cc6c5148babdcb5f.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief61_Aug14.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }