*Paper 89

This research paper by Richard R. Marcus examines the political evolution of Madagascar, focusing on the transition from the autocratic rule of Didier Ratsiraka to the presidency of Marc Ravalomanana following the 2002 crisis. It analyzes the role of social movements, the manipulation of constitutional structures, and the tension between democratic transition and neopatrimonialism.

• Madagascar's political landscape is characterized by the influence of social movements rather than the dominance of 'big men', with key events including the 1947 anti-colonial uprising, the 1972 military dissolution of the First Republic, the 1991 strikes, and the 2002 populist uprising.
• President Didier Ratsiraka systematically manipulated the Third Republic's institutional framework through constitutional referendums in 1998 and electoral code revisions in 2000 to centralize power, increase presidential authority over the prime minister and legislature, and establish a network of loyalists in 'autonomous provinces'.
• The 2002 political crisis was triggered by disputed presidential election results between Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana. While official counts favored Ratsiraka, parallel counts by the KMMR and CNOE indicated a Ravalomanana victory, leading to mass protests and Ravalomanana's extra-constitutional declaration of himself as president on 22 February 2002.
• The resolution of the 2002 crisis involved failed international mediation efforts, including the Dakar Agreements, and culminated in a High Constitutional Court recount on 29 April 2002 that awarded Ravalomanana 51.46 percent of the vote, leading to his re-inauguration on 6 May.
• President Marc Ravalomanana has integrated his private business interests, specifically his dairy company Tiko, with state governance, appointing former Tiko executives to high government positions and utilizing Tiko's infrastructure for political mobilization.
• Under Ravalomanana, the judiciary and legislature have remained largely compliant, with the High Constitutional Court and Supreme Court upholding executive orders and facilitating the trial of former Ratsiraka officials.
• Ravalomanana has sought to bridge the historical ethnic divide between the Merina and côtier groups through a brand of nationalism and business-led development, though he faces emerging challenges from within the Merina aristocratic caste and the FJKM church.
• The author questions whether Ravalomanana's rule represents a genuine democratic transition or a new form of neopatrimonialism, noting that while he has improved infrastructure and opened markets, he continues to consolidate power through patronage and the blurring of public and private interests.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). *Paper 89. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER89.PDF

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. *Paper 89. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER89.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=*Paper 89 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER89.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndpaper, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{*Paper 89}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER89.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }