Diffusion, diversion, displacement – but not disruption

This research paper examines the dynamics of synthetic drug markets in West Africa, using tramadol as a primary case study to analyze how criminal networks adapt to supply-side disruptions. The report highlights that law enforcement and regulatory efforts often lead to market displacement, increased prices, and the emergence of more dangerous synthetic substitutes rather than the total disruption of the trade.

• Synthetic drug markets are highly attractive to criminal actors due to low barriers to entry, including minimal start-up capital and the ability to purchase precursors online via the surface web or dark net.
• The 2018 regulatory reform in India, which restricted tramadol exports by requiring import authorizations, led to a shift in supply origins, with Pakistan emerging as a more significant export point for tramadol to West Africa, particularly into Nigeria via airports.
• Increased law enforcement repression in Benin, Togo, and Niger has driven tramadol markets underground, making them more clandestine and increasing the reliance on corruption and bribes to protect dealers.
• Supply-side interventions have caused retail prices for tramadol to trend upwards in West Africa. In Agadez, the price of a 225-milligram pill rose from FCFA 100–200 in 2010 to FCFA 1,000–2,500 by 2023.
• Regulatory pressure on tramadol has led to the introduction of 'tramadol-like' substances such as Tafrodol (containing tapentadol and carisoprodol), which are often more dangerous and harder for authorities to prosecute because they are not yet scheduled substances.
• High prices for specific drugs often create a market vacuum filled by cheaper, riskier synthetic substitutes. In Sierra Leone, a surge in tramadol prices contributed to the rapid expansion of 'kush', a suspected synthetic cannabinoid.
• The production of methamphetamine in West Africa has evolved through technical assistance from Mexican cartels, shifting from pseudoephedrine-based synthesis to a less expensive reductive amination method using benzylmethylketone (BMK).
• There is a critical dearth of surveillance data on synthetic drug markets in Africa. Over-reliance on seizure data is misleading because it measures law enforcement capacity rather than actual market volume or consumption.
• The criminalization of the illicit tramadol market and global 'war on drugs' efforts have inadvertently restricted the licit availability of essential painkillers in Africa, hindering the treatment of acute and chronic pain.

APA

Bird, L., Kane, M., Eligh, J., & Tagziria, L. (2024). Diffusion, diversion, displacement – but not disruption. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ocwar-treport-14-pdf-eng.pdf

Chicago

Bird, Lucia, Mouhamadou Kane, Jason Eligh, and Lyes Tagziria. Diffusion, diversion, displacement – but not disruption. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ocwar-treport-14-pdf-eng.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bird |first1=Lucia |last2=Kane |first2=Mouhamadou |last3=Eligh |first3=Jason |last4=Tagziria |first4=Lyes |title=Diffusion, diversion, displacement – but not disruption |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=February 2024 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ocwar-treport-14-pdf-eng.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bird2024diffusion, author = {Bird, Lucia and Kane, Mouhamadou and Eligh, Jason and Tagziria, Lyes}, title = {{Diffusion, diversion, displacement – but not disruption}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ocwar-treport-14-pdf-eng.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }