Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political and economic landscape of Guinea-Bissau leading up to the legislative elections on 28 March 2004. It details the country's history of instability, including the 1998-1999 civil war and the 2003 coup d'état that deposed President Kumba Ialá, while outlining the challenges of democratic consolidation, military restructuring, and extreme foreign aid dependence.

• Guinea-Bissau faces severe socio-economic challenges, ranking 167th out of 173 countries on the UNDP Human Development Index, with nearly 90% of its 1.3 million people living on less than US$1 a day.
• The 1998-1999 civil war, triggered by the forced retirement of Brigadier Ansumane Mané, resulted in approximately 2,000 deaths and the destruction of most existing infrastructure.
• The presidency of Kumba Ialá was characterized by political instability, including the dissolution of the National Assembly on 14 November 2002 and the 'Balantasation' of public administration, where the Balanta ethnic group held the majority of high-ranking posts.
• A coup d'état led by General Veríssimo Correia Seabra in September 2003 deposed Kumba Ialá, leading to a transitional government under President Henrique Rosa and the Charter of Political Transition signed on 28 November 2003.
• The legislative elections on 28 March 2004 are contested by 13 parties and 3 coalitions, with the PAIGC and PUSD viewed as the primary contenders, though a victory for the PRS could potentially reignite ethnic tensions.
• Military restructuring remains a critical challenge, specifically the demobilization of ex-combatants; the PDRRI program has been hindered by diverted funds and a lack of capacity, reaching only 4,372 of 20,000 registered ex-combatants.
• Guinea-Bissau is the second most aid-dependent country in sub-Saharan Africa, with foreign aid accounting for more than half of its GDP.

APA

Ferreira, P. M. (2004). Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF

Chicago

Ferreira, Patrícia M. Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections. Institute for Security Studies, 2004. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ferreira |first1=Patrícia M |title=Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 March 2004 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ferreira2004guineabissau, author = {Ferreira, Patrícia M}, title = {{Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2004}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }