Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections

The document provides a comprehensive overview of Guinea-Bissau's political instability from independence in 1974 to the 2004 elections. It details the civil war of 1998-1999, the problematic presidency of Kumba Ialá, and the 2003 coup d'état that led to a transitional government. The report examines the roles of various political parties, such as the PAIGC and PUSD, and the influence of ethnic groups like the Balanta. It concludes by outlining critical challenges for the new government, including the need to restructure the armed forces, consolidate democratic institutions, and reduce extreme dependence on foreign aid.

• Guinea-Bissau is characterized by extreme poverty and high ethnic diversity, with nearly 90% of the population living on less than US$1 a day and the society comprising approximately forty ethnic groups.
• The 1998-1999 civil war, triggered by the forced retirement of Brigadier Ansumane Mané, resulted in approximately 2,000 deaths and the destruction of most existing infrastructure.
• The presidency of Kumba Ialá (1999-2003) was marked by 'Balantasation' of the public administration, frequent dismissal of ministers, and the suspension of IMF budgetary assistance due to bad governance.
• A coup d'état led by General Veríssimo Correia Seabra in September 2003 removed Kumba Ialá from power, leading to a Charter of Political Transition and the appointment of Henrique Rosa as president.
• The legislative elections of 28 March 2004 were contested by 13 political parties and 3 coalitions, with the PAIGC and PUSD identified as the primary contenders.
• The Guinean armed forces require significant restructuring to reduce the number of troops from 23,000 to approximately 11,000 and to ensure the military becomes an agent of democracy rather than destabilisation.
• Guinea-Bissau exhibits a critical dependence on foreign aid, which constitutes more than half of its GDP, making it the second most aid-dependent country in sub-Saharan Africa.

APA

Ferreira, P. M. (2004). Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF

Chicago

Ferreira, Patrícia M. Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections. Institute for Security Studies, 2004. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ferreira |first1=Patrícia M |title=Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 March 2004 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ferreira2004guineabissau, author = {Ferreira, Patrícia M}, title = {{Guinea-Bissau: Perspectives on the up-coming elections}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2004}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/GUINEAREPMAR04COMPLETE.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }