centralafricareportno2-e9d1d45a3217d844.pdf

This September 2014 report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political landscape and potential presidential candidates in the Central African Republic (CAR) ahead of the scheduled 2015 elections. Based on field research in Bangui, the document details the challenges of organizing elections in a 'phantom state' divided by sectarian violence between Séléka and anti-Balaka forces, while profiling a wide array of political contenders and their perceived strengths and weaknesses.

• The Central African Republic is described as a 'phantom state' characterized by extreme division and instability. The country is effectively split in two, with a fault line patrolled by international forces, while Séléka rebels and anti-Balaka vigilantes both refuse to disarm.
• Organizing the 2015 elections faces nearly insurmountable logistical and financial hurdles. The National Electoral Authority (ANE) estimated a budget of 40 million FCFA, which the report considers far too low. Major obstacles include the lack of a current census (the last was in 2003), the destruction of birth and death registries by Séléka rebels, andS and the fact that approximately one-third of the population is displaced or living as refugees.
• Political behavior in the CAR is driven primarily by ethnic alignment rather than party platforms. Many citizens view the political class as 'aventuriers' (adventurers) due to a history of corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency.
• Martin Ziguélé is identified as a frontrunner for the presidency, primarily due to the extensive infrastructure of his party, the Mouvement de Libération du Peuple Centrafricain (MLPC), which operates across all 16 prefectures. However, he faces criticism for his perceived slow reaction to the Séléka advance on Bangui.
• The pool of potential candidates is largely composed of figures from previous administrations (Patassé, Bozizé, and Djotodia), leading to a perceived lack of 'new blood.' Many candidates are viewed as 'aventuriers' who seek the presidency primarily to secure a cabinet post from the eventual winner as compensation.
• International actors, including the UN, AU, CEMAC, France, the EU, and the US, are heavily invested in ensuring the 2015 elections occur to provide political legitimacy. The EU specifically provided approximately ZAR 300 million to support voter registration, training, and equipment.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). centralafricareportno2-e9d1d45a3217d844.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo2.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. centralafricareportno2-e9d1d45a3217d844.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=centralafricareportno2-e9d1d45a3217d844.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndcentralafricareportno2e9d1d45a3217d844pdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{centralafricareportno2-e9d1d45a3217d844.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }