af15_2-570fdd8d7eb02998.pdf

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the challenges facing South Africa's electricity sector, specifically the gap between energy planning and grid planning. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model, the author develops three scenarios to 2050—Current Path, Efficient Grid, and Smarter Grid—to demonstrate how integrated planning, operational flexibility, and coherent policies for small-scale embedded generation (SSEG) can improve economic growth and reduce poverty and carbon emissions.

• South Africa is experiencing a severe electricity crisis characterized by frequent load shedding, which the National Treasury's 2015 budget review identified as 'the most binding constraint' on the economy, contributing to a lowered economic growth forecast of 2% for 2015.
• The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) estimates that South Africa will require nearly 90 GW of generating capacity by 2030, which is approximately double the current levels.
• A critical weakness in South African energy strategy is that grid planning has historically been secondary to energy planning, which is problematic as the geographical overlap between load centres (demand) and capacity centres (production) is disappearing.
• The 'Smarter Grid' scenario, which integrates energy and grid planning with flexible capacity and SSEG policies, predicts the South African economy would be 0.3% larger by 2030 and 2.3% larger by 2050 compared to the 'Current Path', potentially lifting nearly 100,000 people out of extreme poverty by 2050.
• The 'Efficient Grid' scenario, focusing on reducing transmission and distribution losses by 50% by 2050, results in a 3.2% reduction in required generating capacity (from 139 GW in the Current Path to 134.6 GW), but triggers a rebound effect where lower costs increase overall energy consumption and carbon emissions.
• Small-scale embedded generation (SSEG), primarily rooftop solar PV, is forecasted in the 2013 IRP update to potentially account for 30 GW of generating capacity by 2050, though a lack of clear policies may limit benefits to the wealthy and reduce municipal revenues.
• The transition from a monopolistic model to one including Independent Power Producers (IPPs) has created coordination challenges; Eskom's role as both the transmission grid operator and the buyer of electricity from producers creates potential conflicts of interest.
• The 'Smarter Grid' scenario leads to a 24% increase in renewable energy production by 2050 compared to the 'Current Path', with renewables making up 64% of total energy production and carbon emissions falling by 11%.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). af15_2-570fdd8d7eb02998.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF15_2.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. af15_2-570fdd8d7eb02998.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF15_2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=af15_2-570fdd8d7eb02998.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF15_2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndaf152570fdd8d7eb02998pdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{af15\_2-570fdd8d7eb02998.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF15_2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }