Can G20 South Africa shift the global climate action agenda?

This policy brief examines whether South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency, occurring alongside Brazil's hosting of COP30, can re-energise the global climate action agenda. It argues that while the G20 is a powerful 'minilateral' platform capable of driving climate finance and policy, its effectiveness is threatened by rising nationalism, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for a diluted climate focus under the subsequent 2026 US presidency.

• The G20 is positioned as a critical 'minilateral' vehicle for global climate action because its members account for approximately 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 80%–85% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
• The 2025 G20 presidency in South Africa is historically significant as the first held in Africa and the final in a sequence of four consecutive presidencies led by Global South countries, following Indonesia, India, and Brazil.
• There is a significant gap between the climate finance needs of developing countries and current targets; while these countries call for US$1.3 trillion in annual grant-based finance, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) set at COP29 is only US$300 billion per year by 2035, representing just 0.46% of developed countries' GDP.
• The G20's ability to drive cohesive climate action is threatened by several factors: the rise of rival factions through the expansion of other minilaterals like BRICS, the lack of a permanent secretariat, and a shift toward 'interest-based engagement' and nationalist 'my nation first' approaches.
• The 2026 US G20 presidency is viewed as a risk to the climate agenda, as the US has expressed scepticism toward multilateral institutions and has been vocal about an 'anti-climate action agenda'.
• South Africa's G20 presidency and Brazil's COP30 presidency present a joint opportunity to establish new global climate governance, including a proposed UN Climate Change Council to act as a nimble coordinating body for implementation.

APA

Naidoo, D., & Gulati, M. (2025). Can G20 South Africa shift the global climate action agenda? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1763128477136-PB-G20-213.pdf

Chicago

Naidoo, Dhesigen, and Manisha Gulati. Can G20 South Africa shift the global climate action agenda? Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1763128477136-PB-G20-213.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naidoo |first1=Dhesigen |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |title=Can G20 South Africa shift the global climate action agenda? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2025 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1763128477136-PB-G20-213.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naidoo2025can, author = {Naidoo, Dhesigen and Gulati, Manisha}, title = {{Can G20 South Africa shift the global climate action agenda?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1763128477136-PB-G20-213.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }