Stifling democracy in Tanzania

The document argues that Tanzania's 2025 general elections are likely to reinforce authoritarianism due to the ruling party's (CCM) dominance, the disqualification of major opposition parties, and the perceived partisanship of electoral bodies. It highlights Zanzibar as a particular flashpoint for violence due to contentious early voting procedures and the absence of reconciliatory leadership. While some institutional reforms were introduced, the brief contends they are superficial and that executive influence remains strong, leading to a restricted civic space and a high risk of low voter turnout.

• The ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has consolidated power around President Samia Suluhu Hassan, stifling internal party democracy by nominating her as the sole candidate earlier than party tradition dictates.
• The 2025 presidential race is described as one-sided because the two leading opposition parties, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) and Alliance for Change and Transparency–Wazalendo (ACT–Wazalendo), have been disqualified.
• Zanzibar is identified as a potential flashpoint for violence, driven by disputes over early voting (kura ya mapema) and the lack of a reconciliatory figure like the late Seif Shariff Hamad.
• Despite the creation of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC), these bodies are viewed as partisan due to continued executive influence over appointments and decisions.
• The information environment and civic space are severely constrained, characterized by journalist self-censorship and the harassment or abduction of opposition figures.
• Voter registration increased by 26.55% from 2020 to reach 37.65 million voters by July 2025, but these figures are contested by critics who allege data manipulation.
• There is a high risk of low voter turnout in 2025, attributed to the disqualification of main opposition parties and CHADEMA's 'No Reforms, No Election' stance.

APA

Minde, N. (2025). Stifling democracy in Tanzania. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf

Chicago

Minde, Nicodemus. Stifling democracy in Tanzania. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Minde |first1=Nicodemus |title=Stifling democracy in Tanzania |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2025 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{minde2025stifling, author = {Minde, Nicodemus}, title = {{Stifling democracy in Tanzania}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }