Stifling democracy in Tanzania

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risks surrounding Tanzania's general elections scheduled for 29 October 2025. It argues that the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has consolidated power and stifled democratic competition through the disqualification of major opposition parties and the maintenance of executive influence over electoral bodies. The document highlights specific volatility in Zanzibar due to early voting procedures and the absence of reconciliatory leadership, warning that these factors, combined with restricted civic space, may reinforce authoritarianism.

• The 2025 presidential election is described as a 'one-sided race' because the two primary opposition parties, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) and the Alliance for Change and Transparency–Wazalendo (ACT–Wazalendo), have been disqualified.
• Internal democracy within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has declined, evidenced by the early nomination of President Samia Suluhu Hassan as the party's candidate, which is seen as a violation of party tradition.
• Zanzibar is identified as a potential flashpoint for violence due to the controversial 'kura ya mapema' (early voting) procedure and the death of Seif Shariff Hamad, a reconciliatory figure. His successor, Othman Masoud, is viewed as more uncompromising, reducing the likelihood of post-election compromise with the CCM.
• Despite the renaming of the National Electoral Commission to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the body and the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) are perceived as partisan due to continued executive influence over appointments and decisions.
• Civic space is severely constrained, characterized by the harassment and abduction of opposition leaders and a trend of self-censorship among independent media outlets.
• While the INEC reported 37.65 million registered voters by July 2025 (a 26.55% increase from 2020), there are allegations of data manipulation and concerns regarding the disenfranchisement of rural groups, such as Maasai communities in Ngorongoro.

APA

Minde, N. (2025). Stifling democracy in Tanzania. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf

Chicago

Minde, Nicodemus. Stifling democracy in Tanzania. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Minde |first1=Nicodemus |title=Stifling democracy in Tanzania |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2025 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{minde2025stifling, author = {Minde, Nicodemus}, title = {{Stifling democracy in Tanzania}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1760535953039-PB-206.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }