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This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risks surrounding Tanzania's general elections scheduled for 29 October 2025. It argues that the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has consolidated power and stifled democratic competition through the disqualification of major opposition parties and the maintenance of executive influence over electoral bodies. The document highlights specific volatility in Zanzibar due to early voting procedures and the absence of reconciliatory leadership, warning that these factors, combined with restricted civic space, may reinforce authoritarianism.

This report, published by the Institute for Security Studies in 2006, examines the evolution of civil-security relations in Tanzania from the post-independence era through the transition to multi-party democracy. It analyzes the historical politicization of the Tanzanian People’s Defence Force (TPDF) under the one-party state, the subsequent recommendations for security sector reform (SSR) by the Nyalali Commission, and the grassroots perceptions of various security organs. The document also details the specific political and security conflicts in Zanzibar and the reconciliation efforts known as Muafaka I and II.