Summit of the Future: forging consensus on adapting UN mediation

This policy brief argues that United Nations (UN) mediation must adapt to a fragmented geopolitical landscape characterized by increased conflict intensity and the rise of diverse mediation actors. It calls for the Summit of the Future and the Pact for the Future to be used as catalysts for renewing political consensus, enhancing partnerships with regional organisations, and adopting innovative approaches to address geoeconomic and geoecological threats.

• The effectiveness of UN mediation is currently being undermined by a fragmented landscape involving the nature of conflicts, a changing geopolitical environment, and divergent approaches among various mediation actors. This fragmentation is evident in the proliferation of actors and the loss of the UN's monopoly over international mediation, leading to 'forum shopping' in crises such as the one in Sudan.
• Geopolitical polarization, particularly among the five permanent members (P5) of the UN Security Council, hampers mediation efforts by creating divisions over norms and approaches. This is exemplified by the lack of consensus between Russia and the United States regarding the resolution of the crisis in Syria.
• There is a growing trend where parties to conflicts prefer military solutions over mediation, and the principle of sovereignty is increasingly used to resist international mediation. Examples include Syria, Sudan, and Ukraine, where mediation has been sidelined by securitised approaches.
• UN mediation is facing challenges in engaging with non-state armed groups and 'designated terrorist groups' due to legal risks, proscription, and sanctions. The document suggests that greater flexibility in de-listing armed groups and offering 'carrots' alongside 'sticks' is necessary for success.
• While traditional conflict mediation has declined, there is an emerging need for UN mediation in geoeconomic and geoecological areas. Successful examples include the Black Sea grain deal, supported by Türkiye and the UN, and the mediation regarding the FSO Safer oil tanker in the Red Sea to prevent an ecological catastrophe.
• Coordination between the UN and regional organisations, such as the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS, is hindered by disparities in capacity, overlapping mandates, and mutual mistrust. Specifically, the announcement by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to leave ECOWAS is cited as a defiance of the regional bloc's mediation efforts.

APA

Liaga, E. A., Yohannes, D., Belay, T., & Dessu, M. K. (2024). Summit of the Future: forging consensus on adapting UN mediation. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732797972154-PB-189.pdf

Chicago

Liaga, Emmaculate A, Dawit Yohannes, Tsion Belay, and Meressa K Dessu. Summit of the Future: forging consensus on adapting UN mediation. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732797972154-PB-189.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{liaga2024summit, author = {Liaga, Emmaculate A and Yohannes, Dawit and Belay, Tsion and Dessu, Meressa K}, title = {{Summit of the Future: forging consensus on adapting UN mediation}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1732797972154-PB-189.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }