CRIME DOES NOT CAUSE PUNISHMENT

This research paper by Michael Tonry argues that incarceration rates are a matter of political policy rather than a response to crime levels, asserting that sentencing severity does not significantly impact crime trends. Using comparative data from several developed nations, the author contends that mandatory minimum sentences fail to deter crime or ensure consistency, and suggests that South Africa should reduce its imprisonment rates and adopt a structured approach to sentencing.

• Comparative data from developed countries indicates that sentencing and punishment policies have little to no discernible effect on crime trends and patterns, as crime rates often move in parallel regardless of national policies.
• Incarceration rates are determined by policy decisions rather than crime levels. For example, between 1960 and 1993, the US saw incarceration rates rise three to four times while the murder rate remained fairly static; conversely, in Germany (1961–1992) and Finland (1965–1994), violent crime increased while imprisonment rates either stayed flat or decreased.
• Evidence suggests that mandatory minimum sentences do not act as a deterrent, nor do they promote consistency in sentencing. In historical England and the modern US, judges and juries have frequently attempted to evade these penalties when they felt the sentences were inappropriate.
• Different sentencing frameworks yield varying results: Finland and Sweden use sentencing principles that provide guidance to judges and result in high consistency and very short imprisonment terms. In the US, presumptive guidelines in states like Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon appear to increase consistency regarding race, gender, and geography.
• The author recommends that South Africa reduce its imprisonment rates by 50%, repeal minimum sentencing legislation, and implement a structured approach to sentencing to achieve predictability, transparency, and accountability.

APA

Tonry, M. (2007). CRIME DOES NOT CAUSE PUNISHMENT. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2007-sacq-20/01-jun-2007-crime-does-not-cause-punishment-the-impact-of-sentencing-policy-on-levels-of-crime-michael-tonry

Chicago

Tonry, Michael. CRIME DOES NOT CAUSE PUNISHMENT. Institute for Security Studies, 2007. https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2007-sacq-20/01-jun-2007-crime-does-not-cause-punishment-the-impact-of-sentencing-policy-on-levels-of-crime-michael-tonry.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tonry |first1=Michael |title=CRIME DOES NOT CAUSE PUNISHMENT |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 June 2007 |url=https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2007-sacq-20/01-jun-2007-crime-does-not-cause-punishment-the-impact-of-sentencing-policy-on-levels-of-crime-michael-tonry |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tonry2007crime, author = {Tonry, Michael}, title = {{CRIME DOES NOT CAUSE PUNISHMENT}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2007}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2007-sacq-20/01-jun-2007-crime-does-not-cause-punishment-the-impact-of-sentencing-policy-on-levels-of-crime-michael-tonry}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }