The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This special report from the Institute for Security Studies examines poverty, inequality, and the role of government subsidies in Tunisia's development pathways toward 2040. It highlights a projected increase in poverty through 2030, significant disparities in rural areas and among children, and the fiscal instability caused by inefficient energy subsidies.

• Tunisia has met the Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating extreme poverty at the US$1.90 per person per day threshold, with less than 1% of the population living below this level.
• Poverty is projected to rise until 2030 before beginning a gradual decline toward 2040 across three different measurement levels: the national poverty level (US$2.60 per day), the World Bank's extreme poverty level for lower middle-income countries (US$3.20), and the level for upper middle-income countries (US$5.50).
• Poverty is significantly more prevalent among children and in rural regions; child poverty is estimated at over 21%, while the rural poverty rate is 30%, compared to an urban poverty rate between 5% and 12%.
• Energy subsidies in Tunisia are described as inefficient and wasteful, threatening fiscal sustainability. A disproportionate share of these subsidies benefits the wealthy, with over 16% accruing to the wealthiest decile compared to 6.1% for the poorest decile.
• To improve budget optimization and reduce the budget deficit, Tunisia is considering a transition from universal food subsidies to targeted social assistance, including a proposed universal child allowance to mitigate the impact of energy and food subsidy reforms.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }