The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The document analyzes poverty trends in Tunisia, noting that while extreme poverty (US$1.90/day) is largely eliminated, poverty measured at higher thresholds is projected to increase until 2030. It highlights significant disparities in rural areas and among children, and argues that inefficient energy subsidies threaten fiscal sustainability, suggesting a shift toward targeted social assistance and universal child allowances.

• Tunisia has effectively eliminated extreme poverty as defined by the US$1.90 per person per day threshold, with less than 1% of the population living below this level.
• Poverty is projected to rise until 2030 before declining toward 2040 when measured against the national poverty level (US$2.60/day), the World Bank's lower middle-income extreme poverty level (US$3.20/day), and the UMIC level (US$5.50/day).
• Poverty is disproportionately concentrated among children and in rural regions; child poverty is estimated at over 21%, while the rural poverty rate is 30%, significantly higher than the urban rate of 5%–12%.
• Energy subsidies are described as inefficient and wasteful, threatening Tunisia's fiscal sustainability; specifically, the wealthiest decile receives more than 16% of these subsidies, while the poorest decile receives only 6.1%.
• To improve budget optimization and mitigate the impact of subsidy reforms, there are proposals to transition from universal food subsidies to targeted social assistance, including the implementation of a universal child allowance.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=07-poverty}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }