The Education Scenario

The document outlines 'The Education scenario', a set of ambitious interventions for the African education system modeled using the IFs platform. It compares this scenario against a 'Current Path' to demonstrate how improvements in primary, secondary, and tertiary access, quality, and gender parity could impact Africa's ability to meet SDG 4 targets by 2043.

• The Education scenario aims to significantly increase primary school access and retention. Net primary enrolment is projected to rise from 81.8% in 2019 to 96.3% by 2043, while the primary school survival rate is pushed to 90.2%, compared to 82.5% on the Current Path. This would result in gross primary school completion rates reaching 110% by 2043, overtaking South Asia by 2029 and catching up to South America by 2030.
• Interventions at the secondary level focus on transition and graduation rates. In the scenario, the transition rate from primary to lower secondary is projected to increase from 86.6% in 2019 to 98.7% by 2043, with lower secondary completion rising to 74% (vs 63% on the Current Path). For upper secondary, the transition rate from lower secondary is projected to reach 94.7% by 2043, and completion rates are expected to rise to 54.8% (vs 46.1% on the Current Path).
• Tertiary education improvements are less aggressive than lower levels. Tertiary enrolment is projected to increase from 14% in 2019 to 39.4% by 2043, compared to 23.4% on the Current Path. The tertiary graduation rate is expected to rise from 8% in 2019 to nearly 18% by 2043, though this remains significantly below the 30% graduation rates of South Asia and South America.
• The scenario targets the supply of skills relevant to the modern economy by increasing vocational and STEM training. By 2043, the percentage of lower secondary students in vocational training would be 5.6% (up from 1.6%) and upper secondary vocational students would reach 22.8% (up from 17.8% on the Current Path). The share of science and engineering graduates at the tertiary level is projected to increase from 14.6% in 2019 to 24% by 2043.
• Gender parity goals are accelerated in the Education scenario. Net primary enrolment parity is projected to be achieved by 2028 and maintained through 2043. Net secondary enrolment parity is projected for 2035, which is a significant improvement as the Current Path does not achieve this by 2043.
• The scenario aims to improve the quality of education, measured by test scores in maths, reading, and science. By 2043, Africa's secondary level test score is projected to be 45.5, marginally surpassing South Asia's 45.2 and approaching South America's 46.5. At the primary level, the scenario suggests a 26.7% improvement from 2019 values, which would be higher than South Asia's projected quality levels.
• The Education scenario brings Africa closer to meeting SDG 4.1 targets for universal primary and secondary education. Specifically, by 2030, the scenario projects primary net enrolment rising from 82% in 2019 to 92%, and the primary gross completion rate rising from 73% to 100%. Gross lower secondary enrolment would increase from 59% in 2019 to 92% by 2030, and gross upper secondary enrolment would rise from 43% to 66%.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Education Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026education, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Education Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }