The Education Scenario

The report details a strategic education scenario for Africa, projecting improvements in enrolment, survival, and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels by 2043. It emphasizes closing gaps with South Asia and South America, enhancing vocational and STEM training, and achieving gender parity. The scenario suggests that aggressive interventions in primary education are foundational for subsequent gains and are necessary for Africa to approach SDG 4 targets.

• The scenario projects a significant increase in primary education access and retention. Net primary enrolment is expected to rise from 81.8% in 2019 to 96.3% by 2043, while the primary school survival rate is pushed to 90.2%, compared to 82.5% on the Current Path.
• Secondary education improvements focus on transition and completion rates. By 2043, the transition rate from primary to lower secondary is projected to reach 98.7%, and the lower secondary completion rate is expected to rise to 74%, up from 49.6% in 2019.
• Tertiary education gains are projected to be more gradual, as they depend on lower-level improvements. Tertiary enrolment is forecast to increase from 14% in 2019 to 39.4% by 2043, with graduation rates rising from 8% in 2019 to nearly 18% in 2043.
• The scenario targets skills relevant to the modern economy by increasing vocational and STEM training. By 2043, the share of science and engineering graduates at the tertiary level is projected to reach 24%, up from 14.6% in 2019.
• Gender parity goals are accelerated in the scenario, with net primary enrolment parity expected by 2028 and net secondary enrolment parity by 2035, the latter of which is not achieved by 2043 on the Current Path.
• The scenario aims for a 26.7% improvement in primary education quality from 2019 levels by 2043, which would allow Africa to slightly surpass South Asia's quality levels.
• While the scenario brings Africa significantly closer to SDG 4.1 targets, the document notes that the continent is highly unlikely to meet these targets without the full realization of this aggressive scenario.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Education Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026education, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Education Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=09-education-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }