Gas Pressure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa

The report argues that South Africa does not need new gas-fired power generation until at least 2035, if ever, due to the falling costs of renewables and battery storage. It warns that current government momentum toward gas-to-power, including the RMI4P program and proposed LNG terminals, risks creating stranded assets and increasing electricity costs for consumers. The authors recommend a moratorium on gas-to-power development, focusing instead on rapid renewable deployment and energy efficiency.

• Gas-fired power is not technically necessary for South Africa's electricity system until at least 2035, and may never be required due to advances in energy storage and grid integration.
• Renewable energy (wind and solar) is significantly cheaper than new combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) for bulk supply, with a price advantage that has widened since 2016.
• Battery storage has become economically superior to gas for peaking functions, with 3-hour battery storage LCOE estimates in South Africa already 30% cheaper than gas OCGTs.
• The Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (RMI4P) uses a 'take-or-pay' structure that forces gas to be used for bulk supply, potentially costing consumers and Eskom an additional ZAR 42 billion (USD 2.84 billion).
• Investment in gas-to-power carries a high risk of creating stranded assets, with potential capital costs for proposed plants and infrastructure estimated at a minimum of ZAR 184 billion (USD 12.1 billion).
• The gas-to-power value chain may not offer significant GHG emission reductions over coal when methane leakages are considered, potentially making it a poor climate mitigation investment.
• South Africa's gas supply is insecure, relying on declining imports from Mozambique and unconfirmed domestic offshore or shale gas reserves.
• Existing liquid fuel infrastructure (OCGTs running on diesel) is sufficient to meet rare peaking and balancing requirements for the next 15 years, removing the immediate need for new gas supply infrastructure.
• Developing a gas-to-power sector could create a future 'just transition' burden similar to that of the coal sector, as the industry may become economically uncompetitive shortly after establishment.

APA

Halsey, R., Bridle, R., & Geddes, A. (2022). Gas Pressure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-03/south-africa-no-need-for-gas.pdf

Chicago

Halsey, Richard, Richard Bridle, and Anna Geddes. Gas Pressure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-03/south-africa-no-need-for-gas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Halsey |first1=Richard |last2=Bridle |first2=Richard |last3=Geddes |first3=Anna |title=Gas Pressure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-03/south-africa-no-need-for-gas.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{halsey2022gas, author = {Halsey, Richard and Bridle, Richard and Geddes, Anna}, title = {{Gas Pressure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in South Africa}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-03/south-africa-no-need-for-gas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }