In Search of Prosperity

The report argues that while the oil sector has historically driven Alberta's economy, its long-term outlook is bleak due to the rise of electric vehicles, global climate action, and price volatility. It recommends that the government shift industrial policy support away from combustible hydrocarbons toward economic diversification and managed transitions for workers.

• The Alberta oil sector's long-term market outlook is poor, with a combination of technological change, climate action, and geopolitics expected to drive a long-term decline by the end of the decade.
• Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is identified as the most significant influence on future oil demand, as road transport accounts for 44% of global crude oil demand.
• Canadian oil production is significantly more GHG-intense than its global peers; on a well-to-refinery basis, oil sands crude is on average 2.7 times as emissions intensive as U.S. conventional crude.
• Access to capital for the oil sands is increasingly constrained by divestment movements from sovereign wealth and pension funds, as well as the 2019 Supreme Court of Canada Redwater decision, which prioritizes environmental obligations over creditor repayment.
• Modelling a 'low-oil-price' scenario (average USD 55/bbl Brent out to 2050) compared to a USD 70/bbl reference case results in an average annual GDP decrease of CAD 4.4 billion for Alberta's oil and gas sector and a loss of 6,300 FTE jobs per year.
• Price volatility has a more severe impact than low flat prices; in a 'Shocks Scenario', oil and gas sector GDP contributions in Alberta drop by an average of CAD 24.3 billion per year, and royalties drop by 43%.
• The report concludes that oil for combustion is no longer an appropriate target for industrial policy support and urges an immediate shift toward diversifying the economy using existing strengths like geothermal energy and lithium production.
• While petrochemical demand for plastics is projected to grow, it is unlikely to offset the demand loss from the transition to electric vehicles.

APA

Cosbey, A., Sawyer, D., & Stiebert, S. (2021). In Search of Prosperity. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada.pdf

Chicago

Cosbey, Aaron, Dave Sawyer, and Seton Stiebert. In Search of Prosperity. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2021. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cosbey |first1=Aaron |last2=Sawyer |first2=Dave |last3=Stiebert |first3=Seton |title=In Search of Prosperity |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2021 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cosbey2021search, author = {Cosbey, Aaron and Sawyer, Dave and Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{In Search of Prosperity}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }