Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies

The report examines the intersection of climate change and agriculture in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It highlights that while the Prairies are warming faster than most of Canada, leading to increased risks of drought, flooding, and pests, the agricultural sector also contributes significantly to national emissions, particularly through nitrogen fertilizer and livestock. The authors argue that current federal and provincial policies lack concrete sectoral targets and comprehensive strategies, recommending a shift toward agroecology, reinstated public extension services, and targeted financial incentives for beneficial management practices to ensure long-term viability.

• Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Canadian Prairies are significant and trending upward, representing 64% of Canada's total agricultural emissions and over 6% of the country's total emissions. Since 1990, emissions have increased by 25% in Alberta, 81% in Saskatchewan, and 32% in Manitoba.
• The sources of Prairie agricultural emissions are primarily divided between animal production (45%), crop production (35%), and on-farm fuel use (20%). Specifically, enteric fermentation in beef and dairy cattle accounts for 88% of Canada-wide agricultural methane emissions.
• Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of Prairie producers through more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Projections include longer growing seasons but also a paradoxical increase in both drought and flooding risks, alongside the northward migration of pests and diseases such as cereal rusts and striped flea beetles.
• Canadian agricultural policy is hampered by three fundamental barriers: the absence of concrete national or provincial emissions reduction targets for the sector, a lack of comprehensive cross-departmental planning and strategy, and insufficient program evaluation and transparency regarding environmental indicators.
• The report identifies a tension between Canada's international commitments to biodiversity and climate change and its domestic focus on increasing conventional agricultural production and exports. For example, the European Union's "Farm-to-Fork" strategy may impose sustainable labelling and certification requirements that could challenge Canadian producers' market access.
• Beneficial management practices (BMPs) can reduce emissions and increase resilience, but many are not economically viable without policy support. Recommended practices include "4R Stewardship" for nitrogen fertilizer, cover cropping, rotational grazing to sequester carbon, and the use of biodigesters for manure management.
• The report advocates for an agroecology approach, which applies ecological principles to sustainable food systems. This includes reinstating public extension services and research, introducing crop insurance discounts for BMPs, and facilitating payments for ecosystem services, such as the Alternative Land Use Service (ALUS) model.

APA

Laforge, J., Corkal, V., & Cosbey, A. (2021). Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf

Chicago

Laforge, Julia, Vanessa Corkal, and Aaron Cosbey. Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2021. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Laforge |first1=Julia |last2=Corkal |first2=Vanessa |last3=Cosbey |first3=Aaron |title=Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{laforge2021farming, author = {Laforge, Julia and Corkal, Vanessa and Cosbey, Aaron}, title = {{Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }