AUGE O CAÍDA: CÓMO LA VOLATILIDAD DE PRECIOS DE LOS PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS IMPIDE LA REDUCCIÓN DE LA POBREZA Y QUÉ SE PUEDE HACER AL RESPECTO

The report argues that commodity price volatility, which can see prices fluctuate by 50% in a single year, obstructs long-term planning, deepens commodity dependence, and hinders poverty reduction for approximately two billion people globally. It highlights that the core issue is not price volatility itself, but the resulting volatility of national and individual incomes. The document analyzes five policy interventions: supply management (controlling supply to influence price), national revenue management (using stabilization funds like those in Norway and Chile), market risk management (using futures and options), compensatory financing (external grants or loans for export earnings losses), and alternative trade initiatives (certification and fair trade). It concludes that no single 'magic solution' exists and recommends a combination of complementary policies, private sector engagement, and the integration of income stabilization into broader rural development and diversification programs.

• Commodity price volatility significantly impacts global populations, with approximately two billion people—nearly one-third of the world's population—relying on the production of commodities such as copper, cotton, and rice.
• Short-term price volatility is extreme, with some commodities fluctuating by as much as 50% within a single year, and the frequency of price shocks has increased; the last 30 years have seen as many shocks as the previous 75 years.
• Long-term trends show that the prices of primary commodities have declined relative to manufactured goods, forcing producers to increase output to maintain the same returns and hindering investment in technology.
• Price volatility leads to precarious environmental management; high prices incentivize rapid production increases that can exhaust land or minerals, while low prices may leave producers unable to afford required environmental cleanup.
• National revenue management tools, such as National Revenue Funds (NRFs), can isolate government spending from volatile commodity revenues, as seen in Norway's Government Pension Fund – Global and Chile's stabilization fund.
• Market-based risk management tools, including futures, options, and 'zero-cost' options, provide income predictability rather than price stability, but access remains a major barrier for small-scale producers.
• Compensatory financing mechanisms, such as the EU's STABEX and the IMF's Compensatory Financing Facility, have historically suffered from onerous application requirements and pro-cyclical disbursements.
• Alternative trade initiatives, such as Fair Trade and Organic certifications, create differentiated markets that can reduce price volatility and provide social premiums, though they currently represent a very small fraction of total global sales.
• The report concludes that there is no single policy that can address all aspects of price volatility; instead, a combination of complementary policies and the integration of stabilization into rural development programs is necessary.

APA

Brown, O., Crawford, A., & Gibson, J. (2008). AUGE O CAÍDA: CÓMO LA VOLATILIDAD DE PRECIOS DE LOS PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS IMPIDE LA REDUCCIÓN DE LA POBREZA Y QUÉ SE PUEDE HACER AL RESPECTO. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/boom_or_bust_commodity_es.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Oli, Alec Crawford, and Jason Gibson. AUGE O CAÍDA: CÓMO LA VOLATILIDAD DE PRECIOS DE LOS PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS IMPIDE LA REDUCCIÓN DE LA POBREZA Y QUÉ SE PUEDE HACER AL RESPECTO. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2008. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/boom_or_bust_commodity_es.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Oli |last2=Crawford |first2=Alec |last3=Gibson |first3=Jason |title=AUGE O CAÍDA: CÓMO LA VOLATILIDAD DE PRECIOS DE LOS PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS IMPIDE LA REDUCCIÓN DE LA POBREZA Y QUÉ SE PUEDE HACER AL RESPECTO |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=January 2008 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/boom_or_bust_commodity_es.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2008auge, author = {Brown, Oli and Crawford, Alec and Gibson, Jason}, title = {{AUGE O CAÍDA: CÓMO LA VOLATILIDAD DE PRECIOS DE LOS PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS IMPIDE LA REDUCCIÓN DE LA POBREZA Y QUÉ SE PUEDE HACER AL RESPECTO}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2008}, month = jan, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/boom_or_bust_commodity_es.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }