Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation

This guide describes the process of participatory scenario development (PSD) for climate change adaptation, emphasizing the integration of stakeholder knowledge with scientific data. It outlines a five-step methodology and provides a detailed case study from the Lake Balaton region in Hungary to demonstrate how PSD can influence local and national adaptation policies.

• Participatory scenario development (PSD) is defined as the involvement of stakeholders in creating plausible descriptions of future development, rather than predictions of socio-economic or climate impacts. The most effective PSD processes combine stakeholder and 'expert' knowledge to create locally relevant responses, provide learning opportunities about climate impacts, and balance biophysical risks with social issues like food security and employment.
• The PSD process consists of five sequential steps: defining the scope of the scenario process; identifying key factors shaping local development (such as economic sectors and poverty levels); developing internally consistent scenarios based on a long-term target vision; reviewing scenarios using 'what if' questions to test them against biophysical indicators; and strategy building to identify short- and long-term actions and enabling policies.
• In a case study in the Lake Balaton region of Hungary, PSD workshops involving approximately 80 participants from diverse groups—including farmers, municipal officials, and students—identified key development factors such as water resources management, tourism development, and biodiversity protection. The process used a collage technique for vision development and identified specific adaptation options for agriculture, such as increasing rainwater storage and using heat-tolerant crop varieties.
• The outcomes of the Lake Balaton PSD exercise influenced policy in three ways: some actions were integrated into the national climate change strategy; the Lake Balaton Development Coordination Agency (LBDCA) updated its project evaluation guidance to align with identified short- and medium-term actions; and the process created pressure to implement neglected regional development plans regarding reforestation and irrigation.
• PSD offers benefits by identifying development priorities that also increase adaptation capacity, such as improving healthcare in disease-prone areas, and by scaling up small-scale initiatives like rainwater collection. It also empowers communities by eliciting local knowledge that may not have been previously recognized as adaptation practice.
• A primary challenge of PSD is the difficulty of linking quantitative climate projections and trend data with qualitative scenarios and then transforming those results into formal policies. This requires ongoing dialogue between researchers and community groups to manage uncertainties in climate projections.

APA

Bizikova, L., Dickinson, T., & Pintér, L. (n.d.). Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf

Chicago

Bizikova, Livia, Thea Dickinson, and László Pintér. Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bizikova |first1=Livia |last2=Dickinson |first2=Thea |last3=Pintér |first3=László |title=Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bizikovandparticipatory, author = {Bizikova, Livia and Dickinson, Thea and Pintér, László}, title = {{Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }