Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation

The document outlines a five-step participatory scenario development (PSD) process designed to integrate local stakeholder knowledge with scientific climate projections to create plausible future development pathways. It argues that the most effective PSD brings together 'expert' and stakeholder knowledge to balance biophysical risks with social issues. A case study in Lake Balaton, Hungary, illustrates the process, where 80 participants identified key economic factors—such as tourism and agriculture—and developed adaptation strategies including rainwater storage and the use of native crop varieties. The guide concludes that PSD helps identify development priorities that simultaneously increase adaptive capacity, though it notes the challenge of linking quantitative climate data with qualitative scenarios.

• Participatory scenario development (PSD) is most effective when it integrates stakeholder and expert knowledge to create locally relevant responses, provide learning opportunities about climate impacts, and balance biophysical risks with social issues like food security and employment.
• The PSD methodology consists of five sequential steps: defining the scope, identifying key factors shaping local development, developing scenarios (using techniques like collages), reviewing scenarios via 'what if' questions regarding biophysical indicators, and building strategies for short- and long-term action.
• In the Lake Balaton, Hungary case study, stakeholders identified six key factors for the local economy and biodiversity: water resources management, agricultural practices, agricultural economic performance, tourism development, shoreline property development, and biodiversity protection.
• The Lake Balaton case study identified specific climate impacts, such as decreased snowfall and water/heat stress on vineyards, leading to adaptation options including increased rainwater storage, use of heat-tolerant crop varieties, and adjusted planting schedules.
• PSD outcomes can directly influence policy; in the Hungary case, actions were integrated into the national climate change strategy, and the Lake Balaton Development Coordination Agency (LBDCA) updated its project evaluation guidance to align with identified short- and medium-term actions.
• A primary benefit of PSD is the identification of development priorities that also increase adaptive capacity, such as improving healthcare in disease-prone areas or expanding small-scale rainwater collection.
• A significant challenge in PSD is the difficulty of linking quantitative climate projections and current trends with qualitative scenarios to transform them into actionable policies.

APA

Bizikova, L., Dickinson, T., & Pintér, L. (n.d.). Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf

Chicago

Bizikova, Livia, Thea Dickinson, and László Pintér. Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bizikova |first1=Livia |last2=Dickinson |first2=Thea |last3=Pintér |first3=László |title=Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bizikovandparticipatory, author = {Bizikova, Livia and Dickinson, Thea and Pintér, László}, title = {{Participatory scenario development for climate change adaptation}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory_scenario_development.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }