Discussion Paper on an Environment Outlook for Canada

The document proposes the creation of an Environment Outlook for Canada (EOC), an integrated environmental assessment designed to move beyond traditional state-of-the-environment reporting by focusing on future-oriented scenarios. It details the potential scope of the EOC, including key topical issues like climate change and water quality, and suggests a time horizon of 20 to 30 years. The paper emphasizes the need for a participatory process involving policy-makers, shapers, and takers to ensure the assessment is salient, credible, and legitimate. It recommends a feasibility analysis and the development of a formal proposal by fall 2007, suggesting that the EOC could be hosted by an independent secretariat to maintain credibility.

• An environment outlook is distinguished from traditional state of the environment (SoE) reports by its focus on the future, examining the medium- to long-term impacts of current trends and policy choices.
• For an environmental assessment to influence its audience, it must be perceived as salient (relevant), credible (based on trusted information), and legitimate (considering a variety of actor perspectives), which is often achieved through the co-production of knowledge.
• The proposed EOC would ideally cover a time horizon of 20 to 30 years, providing a compromise that allows for policy implementation and business capital investment planning, while extending up to 50 years for national issues like climate change.
• The EOC's geographic scope should be multi-scalar, addressing issues nationally (e.g., climate change mitigation), sub-nationally (e.g., sea ice), and locally (e.g., smog and water quality).
• To ensure independence and credibility, it is recommended that the EOC be managed by a secretariat hosted outside of government by an independent organization or academic institution.
• Estimated resource requirements for a consultative national outlook process, based on international examples, could range from US$800,000 to 1,000,000 over 18 to 24 months, excluding modeling costs.

APA

Rothman, D. S. (2007). Discussion Paper on an Environment Outlook for Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/env_outlook_discussion.pdf

Chicago

Rothman, Dale S. Discussion Paper on an Environment Outlook for Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2007. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/env_outlook_discussion.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rothman |first1=Dale S. |title=Discussion Paper on an Environment Outlook for Canada |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=June 2007 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/env_outlook_discussion.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rothman2007discussion, author = {Rothman, Dale S.}, title = {{Discussion Paper on an Environment Outlook for Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2007}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/env_outlook_discussion.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }