Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa

The report assesses the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa's economy, forecasting significant job losses and wage declines. Using a 10% contraction in final demand as a median scenario, it estimates 1.77 million jobs are at risk, with the most severe impacts falling on low-skilled, informal, and poverty-stricken workers. The analysis highlights that the service sector and agriculture are hardest hit due to their reliance on consumption spending. The authors argue that the government's R500 billion rescue package is insufficient and poorly implemented, recommending a net new expenditure of at least R500 billion, expanded social protection, and targeted support for the informal sector and primary industries.

• Based on a median 10 per cent shock to final demand, approximately 1.77 million jobs are at risk of being lost over the next 24 months, representing 10.8 per cent of total employment. If skilled workers are excluded from immediate risk, the figure is 1.485 million jobs (9.1 per cent of total employment).
• The economic shock is expected to be significantly more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). While the GFC resulted in 1.12 million job losses, the COVID-19 GDP contraction is forecast to be several times larger, making it highly unlikely that job losses will be less than those of the GFC.
• Job losses are heavily concentrated in the tertiary (service) sector and agriculture. Under a 10 per cent shock, the eight hardest-hit sub-sectors include wholesale and retail trade, community, social, and personal services, business activities, agriculture, construction, professional business services, transport and storage, and catering and accommodation, collectively accounting for 80 per cent of all jobs at risk.
• Low-skilled and informal workers are disproportionately affected. 83.7 per cent of all jobs at risk are less-skilled employment, and 51.4 per cent fall into the lowest and 'basic' skill categories (which includes all informal sector work). Approximately 510,852 informal-sector jobs are at risk.
• Workers in poverty face the highest risk of job loss. 11.6 per cent of those in working poverty (earning below R5,086 per month) are at risk, compared to 9.8 per cent of those above that line. Those in working poverty comprise 64.6 per cent of total job losses.
• Gender impacts are significant in specific sectors. While total job losses are distributed similarly by gender (40 per cent for women, 60 per cent for men), women are disproportionately affected in 'other community, social, and personal services' (including domestic work), which accounts for roughly one-quarter of all female job losses.
• The South African government's R500 billion rescue package is criticized for insufficient funding and poor implementation. Much of the budget consists of reallocated funds from existing expenditures rather than net new spending, with only R36 billion in net increase for non-interest spending in the current year.
• The Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme (TERS) faces implementation challenges, including long turnaround times, opacity in payment amounts, and the initial exclusion of non-registered workers. The report suggests increasing TERS funding and simplifying the application process via the South African Revenue Service.

APA

Strauss, I., Isaacs, G., Rosenberg, J., & Passoni, P. (2020). Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa. Institute for Economic Justice. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Rapid-country-assessment-South-Africa-the-impacts-from-a-COVID-19-shock-to-South-Africas-economy-and-labour-market.pdf

Chicago

Strauss, Ilan, Gilad Isaacs, Josh Rosenberg, and Patieene Passoni. Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa. Institute for Economic Justice, 2020. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Rapid-country-assessment-South-Africa-the-impacts-from-a-COVID-19-shock-to-South-Africas-economy-and-labour-market.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Strauss |first1=Ilan |last2=Isaacs |first2=Gilad |last3=Rosenberg |first3=Josh |last4=Passoni |first4=Patieene |title=Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa |publisher=Institute for Economic Justice |date=August 2020 |url=https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Rapid-country-assessment-South-Africa-the-impacts-from-a-COVID-19-shock-to-South-Africas-economy-and-labour-market.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{strauss2020rapid, author = {Strauss, Ilan and Isaacs, Gilad and Rosenberg, Josh and Passoni, Patieene}, title = {{Rapid Country Assessment: South Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Economic Justice}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Rapid-country-assessment-South-Africa-the-impacts-from-a-COVID-19-shock-to-South-Africas-economy-and-labour-market.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }