Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047)

The project examines hydrological cycles in the American cordillera, specifically in North America and basins in Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina. Initial results include a 700-year tree-ring reconstruction showing severe 14th-century droughts in the high Andes that led to social conflict and village abandonment. In Chile, a slight decline in streamflow over the last century is noted, with significant rainfall drops in 1945 linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, drought risk in the southern Andes was higher between 1920 and 2002 than between 1346 and 1919, threatening agriculture and hydroelectric power.

• A 700-year tree-ring width record used to reconstruct rainfall variability in the high Andes revealed a major drought in the 14th century that caused social disruption, including the abandonment of open pre-Inca lowland villages for fortified sites and the onset of local warfare between 1314 and 1315, followed by two more major droughts in that century.
• Regional streamflow in Chile has shown a slight declining trend over the last 100 years, marked by two significant climate regime changes: a 31% drop in average annual rainfall in 1945, which only recovered by 28% in 1977. These changes align with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the North Pacific, and future oscillations combined with a trend of decreasing rainfall may significantly affect water availability.
• A drought severity index for the southern Andes (35.5°-39.5°S) shows that drought risk was higher from 1920 to 2002 than in the reconstructed period from 1346 to 1919. If this trend persists, it poses a threat to hydroelectric power production and agriculture.

APA

Luckman, B. H., JoseVillanueva-Diaz, Argollo, J., RicardoVillalba, Lara, A., & Campos, E. (2010). Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf

Chicago

Luckman, Brian. H., JoseVillanueva-Diaz, Jaime Argollo, RicardoVillalba, Antonio Lara, and Edmo Campos. Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, 2010. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Luckman |first1=Brian. H. |last2=JoseVillanueva-Diaz |last3=Argollo |first3=Jaime |last4=RicardoVillalba |last5=Lara |first5=Antonio |last6=Campos |first6=Edmo |title=Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047) |publisher=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |date=February 2010 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{luckman2010documenting, author = {Luckman, Brian. H. and JoseVillanueva-Diaz and Argollo, Jaime and RicardoVillalba and Lara, Antonio and Campos, Edmo}, title = {{Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047)}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2010}, month = feb, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }