Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047)

The project investigates long-term hydrological changes in the American cordillera, utilizing tree-ring records and streamflow data to analyze drought patterns and climate regime shifts. Initial findings highlight a severe 14th-century drought in the high Andes with significant social consequences, a declining streamflow trend in Chile linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and an increasing drought risk in the southern Andes between 1920 and 2002 that threatens agriculture and hydroelectric power.

• A 700-year tree-ring record of the high Andes reveals a major drought in the 14th century that caused pre-Inca lowland villages to be abandoned for fortified sites and coincided with the start of local warfare between 1314 and 1315.
• Chile has experienced a slight decline in regional streamflow over the last century, including two major climate regime changes: a 31% drop in average annual rainfall in 1945, which only recovered by 28% in 1977. These shifts are linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
• A drought severity index for the southern Andes (35.5°-39.5°S) shows that the period from 1920 to 2002 had a higher drought risk than the reconstructed period from 1346 to 1919, posing a threat to hydroelectric power production and agriculture.

APA

Luckman, B. H., JoseVillanueva-Diaz, Argollo, J., RicardoVillalba, Lara, A., & Campos, E. (2010). Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf

Chicago

Luckman, Brian. H., JoseVillanueva-Diaz, Jaime Argollo, RicardoVillalba, Antonio Lara, and Edmo Campos. Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, 2010. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Luckman |first1=Brian. H. |last2=JoseVillanueva-Diaz |last3=Argollo |first3=Jaime |last4=RicardoVillalba |last5=Lara |first5=Antonio |last6=Campos |first6=Edmo |title=Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047) |publisher=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |date=February 2010 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{luckman2010documenting, author = {Luckman, Brian. H. and JoseVillanueva-Diaz and Argollo, Jaime and RicardoVillalba and Lara, Antonio and Campos, Edmo}, title = {{Documenting, understanding and projecting changes in the hydrological cycle in the American cordillera (CRN2047)}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2010}, month = feb, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRN2_47.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }