Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity

The project uses proxy data from lagoon sediments, stalagmites, tree-rings, and corals to analyze past hurricane activity. Key findings indicate that higher hurricane activity correlates with warmer sea surface temperatures and specific climate patterns like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Research in Nicaragua and Belize suggests an anti-phase relationship in landfall activity between Central America and the eastern Caribbean/U.S. East coast, influenced by the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and subtropical anticyclone. Additionally, the project identifies the Low-Level Jet (IALLJ) as a critical factor for sea surface temperatures and moisture advection. Demographic data highlights that approximately 19 million people in the conterminous U.S. live in vulnerable areas less than 1 km from the coastline.

• A coral-based proxy record of Atlantic sea surface temperatures from AD 1552-1991 indicates that warmer sea surfaces coincide with higher hurricane activity, specifically before 1550 and after 1750, while cooler surfaces correlate with fewer storms in the Caribbean.
• Caribbean hurricane activity is influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with peaks in activity during the Medieval period (AD 900-1100) and since 1980 linked to warmer sea surface temperatures and La Niña-like conditions.
• Proxy records from Belize and Nicaragua suggest an anti-phase relationship in hurricane landfall activity between Central America and the U.S. East coast and eastern Caribbean, likely driven by changes in steering patterns and the positions of the subtropical anticyclone and the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ).
• The Low-Level Jet (IALLJ) dominates air mass circulations in the Intra-Americas Sea and significantly impacts moisture advection and sea surface temperatures, which are key factors for storm damage and hurricane strength.
• Based on 2006 demographic data, approximately 19 million people in the conterminous U.S. reside in vulnerable areas within 1 km of the coastline, and 12 million people live in areas with an elevation of three meters or less along the coast.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2013). Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRA_2050.pdf

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity. 2013. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRA_2050.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity |date=May 2013 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRA_2050.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2013paleotempestology, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2013}, month = may, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/CRA_2050.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }