China’s wind and solar megabases face coal test
Summary
This research paper by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) examines the challenges facing China's wind and solar megabases, specifically the risks of transmission bottlenecks and the potential for renewable energy to supplement rather than replace coal-based industries.
Key insights
- Transmission bottlenecks, dispatch practices, and coal-related incentives are causing rising curtailment of wind and solar output. To mitigate this, China is adopting a "second leg" model for megabases by attracting high-consumption industries—such as data centers and green hydrogen production—to use green electricity locally.
- China's green hydrogen sector is expanding rapidly, with over 10 GW of wind and solar capacity currently dedicated to its production, yielding at least 250,000 tonnes per year. GEM data indicates another 53 GW of capacity is under development, which could produce 1.6 million tonnes annually.
- There is a risk of "coal lock-in" where renewable energy is used to secure regulatory approval for coal-based projects without significantly reducing fossil fuel use. For example, Baofeng Energy's coal-to-olefins project in Inner Mongolia, commissioned in 2025, uses a 1 GW wind and solar project that reduces coal consumption by only 2.2% of the facility's total annual use.
- The 15th Five-Year Plan for the energy sector (2026–2030) is described as conservative regarding transmission, aiming to increase northwest–to–east power transmission capacity from 340 GW to 420 GW. This suggests that power transmission will likely remain a bottleneck for renewable megabases.
Cite the original document
- APA
- Huang, A. Y. J. N. Y. (n.d.). China’s wind and solar megabases face coal test. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/chinas-wind-and-solar-megabases-face-coal-test
- Chicago
- Huang, Aiqun Yu, James Norman, Ye. China’s wind and solar megabases face coal test. Global Energy Monitor, n.d. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/chinas-wind-and-solar-megabases-face-coal-test.
- Wikipedia
- {{cite report |last1=Huang |first1=Aiqun Yu, James Norman, Ye |title=China’s wind and solar megabases face coal test |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/chinas-wind-and-solar-megabases-face-coal-test |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
- BibTeX
- @techreport{huangndchinas, author = {Huang, Aiqun Yu, James Norman, Ye}, title = {{China’s wind and solar megabases face coal test}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/chinas-wind-and-solar-megabases-face-coal-test}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }
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