Too Big to Fail: Transforming the Amazon’s Economy from Deforestation-Driven to Inclusive and Green

This report by the Green Economy Coalition (GEC) and Fundação Amazonas Sustentável (FAS) argues that the Amazon is 'too big to fail' and must transition from a 'deforestation economy' to an inclusive green economy. It details the systemic risks of an ecological tipping point and proposes the creation of the Amazon Green Economy Hub in Manaus to coordinate multi-stakeholder efforts, scale bioeconomy enterprises, and reform economic policies to value standing forests over land liquidation.

• The Amazon is approaching a systemic 'tipping point' of ecological collapse where deforestation, climate change, and fire create a feedback loop. Scientists warn that if deforestation reaches 20-25%, the system could collapse, potentially costing over US$3 trillion in lost food, water, and hydropower supplies.
• The current 'deforestation economy' is characterized by the extraction of a few commodities like beef, soy, and timber to benefit a small elite, while externalizing environmental and social costs. This model is based on the fallacy that forest removal is the primary driver of economic growth.
• Research indicates that transitioning to a zero-deforestation model would have a negligible impact on national economic growth. Specifically, a strict zero-deforestation policy in Brazil is estimated to result in a GDP drop of only 0.62% by 2030.
• The Amazon provides critical global and regional ecosystem services, including acting as the largest terrestrial carbon pool (storing 135-180 billion tonnes) and pumping 7 trillion tonnes of water into the atmosphere annually to regulate South American rainfall.
• Sustainable micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) based on a 'bioeconomy' show significant potential for inclusive growth. For example, the açaí fruit industry has become a US$1.5 billion/year industry, and FAS's 'Standing Forest' programme reported that participating forest people tripled their monthly family income between 2011 and 2019.
• The report identifies a 'fragmentation' of sustainable initiatives, describing them as 'islands' of success in a 'sea of failure' because they often address single issues and lack the scale or policy support to challenge the dominant deforestation-driven economic rules.
• To catalyze transformation, FAS and GEC launched the Amazon Green Economy Hub in Manaus in September 2020. The Hub is designed as a cross-sectoral platform for dialogue, a research focal point, and a business incubator to scale bioeconomy MSMEs.
• The report advocates for a shift toward 'Natural Capital Accounting' (NCA) to value nature on national balance sheets. It notes that 80 countries, including most Amazon nations except Bolivia and Venezuela, have developed pilot NCA accounts.

APA

Bass, S., Viana, V., Salviati, V., Sampaio, G., Greenfield, O., Benson, E., & Worsley, S. (2020). Too Big to Fail: Transforming the Amazon’s Economy from Deforestation-Driven to Inclusive and Green. Green Economy Coalition. https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/assets/reports/Amazon-Too-big-to-fail-Strategy-for-consultation.pdf

Chicago

Bass, Steve, Virgilio Viana, Victor Salviati, Gabriela Sampaio, Oliver Greenfield, Emily Benson, and Stuart Worsley. Too Big to Fail: Transforming the Amazon’s Economy from Deforestation-Driven to Inclusive and Green. Green Economy Coalition, 2020. https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/assets/reports/Amazon-Too-big-to-fail-Strategy-for-consultation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bass |first1=Steve |last2=Viana |first2=Virgilio |last3=Salviati |first3=Victor |last4=Sampaio |first4=Gabriela |last5=Greenfield |first5=Oliver |last6=Benson |first6=Emily |last7=Worsley |first7=Stuart |title=Too Big to Fail: Transforming the Amazon’s Economy from Deforestation-Driven to Inclusive and Green |publisher=Green Economy Coalition |date=September 2020 |url=https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/assets/reports/Amazon-Too-big-to-fail-Strategy-for-consultation.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bass2020too, author = {Bass, Steve and Viana, Virgilio and Salviati, Victor and Sampaio, Gabriela and Greenfield, Oliver and Benson, Emily and Worsley, Stuart}, title = {{Too Big to Fail: Transforming the Amazon’s Economy from Deforestation-Driven to Inclusive and Green}}, institution = {Green Economy Coalition}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/assets/reports/Amazon-Too-big-to-fail-Strategy-for-consultation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }