MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD

This report analyzes how smart land use policy can help California achieve its 2030 goal of reducing carbon emissions to at least 40% below 1990 levels. Using the RapidFire model and data from the E3 California Pathways study, the authors demonstrate that compact, transit-oriented development can close the emissions gap left by technological advances alone, while providing significant economic, public health, and environmental co-benefits.

• Implementation of smart land use policy, combined with energy sector technological advances, is critical for California to meet its 2030 target of reducing carbon emissions by at least 40% below 1990 levels. The 'More Compact' and 'Infill Focus' scenarios, when paired with the E3 Early Deployment technology scenario, result in statewide reductions of 40-41% below 1990 emissions.
• Smarter land use patterns can significantly reduce passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Compared to a 'Past Trends' scenario, the 'Current Plans', 'More Compact', and 'Infill Focus' scenarios result in 5%, 13%, and 16% lower VMT, respectively, by 2030.
• Compact land use provides substantial economic co-benefits for households and local governments. By 2030, the 'Infill Focus' scenario could save households an average of nearly $2,000 per year compared to 'Past Trends'. Additionally, more compact growth could result in cumulative local infrastructure savings of $12-$18.5 billion through 2030.
• Smart growth leads to significant public health improvements by reducing air pollutants from passenger vehicles. Cumulative avoided health costs through 2030 are estimated at $2.6 billion for 'Current Plans', $6.4 billion for 'More Compact', and $8.2 billion for 'Infill Focus' compared to 'Past Trends'.
• More compact development reduces environmental pressure on land and water. The 'Infill Focus' scenario would require only 150 square miles of greenfield land consumption by 2030, compared to 850 square miles under 'Past Trends'. Annual residential water use would also be 3.2% lower in the 'Infill Focus' scenario than in 'Past Trends'.
• A 2% reduction from current total VMT levels would be sufficient to achieve a 50% reduction in oil use for passenger transportation by 2030, assuming the E3 Early Deployment technology scenario. While the modeled scenarios do not quite reach this 2% reduction, the authors suggest it is achievable through emerging mobility options like ride-hailing, micro-transit, and e-bikes.
• The report recommends that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) strengthen emissions reduction targets under SB 375 and provide substantial funding to help cities and regions implement target-compliant land use plans, specifically by prioritizing funding for 'high performance zones' such as Priority Development Areas (PDAs).

APA

Busch, C., Lew, E., & DiStefano, J. (2015). MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf

Chicago

Busch, Chris, Erika Lew, and Joe DiStefano. MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD. Energy Innovation, 2015. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Busch |first1=Chris |last2=Lew |first2=Erika |last3=DiStefano |first3=Joe |title=MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=November 2015 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2015moving, author = {Busch, Chris and Lew, Erika and DiStefano, Joe}, title = {{MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }