MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD

The report argues that smart land use policy is critical for California to meet its 2030 decarbonization goals. Using the RapidFire model and E3 California Pathways data, the study finds that 'More Compact' and 'Infill Focus' scenarios can lead to statewide emissions reductions of 40-41% below 1990 levels when combined with aggressive energy technology deployment. Beyond climate targets, smart growth is projected to deliver significant co-benefits, including billions of dollars in household and infrastructure cost savings, improved public health outcomes through reduced air pollution, and the preservation of greenfield land. The authors recommend that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) strengthen emissions reduction targets under SB 375 and provide substantial funding to support cities and regions in implementing target-compliant land use plans.

• Combining the 'More Compact' and 'Infill Focus' land use scenarios with the E3 Early Deployment energy technology scenario results in statewide carbon emissions reductions of 40-41% below 1990 levels by 2030.
• Smarter land use patterns can significantly reduce household expenses, with the 'Infill Focus' scenario saving households an average of nearly $2,000 annually in 2030 compared to 'Past Trends', primarily through lower auto-related spending.
• Compact growth reduces the fiscal burden on local governments by lowering the cost of building and maintaining infrastructure; the 'Infill Focus' scenario is projected to generate $18.5 billion in cumulative infrastructure savings through 2030 compared to 'Past Trends'.
• Smart growth improves public health by reducing passenger vehicle emissions, with the 'Infill Focus' scenario estimated to save $8.2 billion in cumulative avoided health costs through 2030 relative to 'Past Trends'.
• The 'Infill Focus' scenario drastically reduces the consumption of undeveloped land, requiring only 150 square miles of greenfield land by 2030, compared to 850 square miles under the 'Past Trends' scenario.
• A 2% reduction in total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from current levels would be sufficient to achieve a 50% reduction in oil use for passenger transportation, assuming the E3 Early Deployment technology scenario.
• The 'Current Plans' scenario, based on first-round SB 375 strategies, is projected to meet the 2035 goal of a 13% reduction in per-capita VMT below 2005 levels, while 'More Compact' and 'Infill Focus' would reach 23% and 26% reductions respectively.

APA

Busch, C., Lew, E., & DiStefano, J. (2015). MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf

Chicago

Busch, Chris, Erika Lew, and Joe DiStefano. MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD. Energy Innovation, 2015. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Busch |first1=Chris |last2=Lew |first2=Erika |last3=DiStefano |first3=Joe |title=MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=November 2015 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2015moving, author = {Busch, Chris and Lew, Erika and DiStefano, Joe}, title = {{MOVING CALIFORNIA FORWARD}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Moving-California-Forward-Full-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }