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The analysis of draft NECPs reveals that the EU is set to miss its 2030 coal phase-out goals, with 11 Member States planning no phase-out and 60 GW of coal capacity projected to remain. The report highlights a disconnect where countries receiving EU just transition funding, such as Poland and Czechia, lack credible phase-out plans in their NECPs.

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  • The EU is projected to maintain 60 GW of installed coal capacity by 2030, representing a reduction of only 58% from the 2019 level of 143 GW.
  • Of the 21 EU Member States using coal for electricity, only 8 have a clear commitment to phase out coal between 2021 and 2030; 11 Member States have no such plan and most show little to no capacity decrease compared to 2019.
  • The majority of the EU's remaining coal capacity in 2030 will be concentrated in six countries: Poland, Germany, Czechia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece.
  • Several Member States are receiving support through the EU Commission’s Coal Regions in Transition Platform despite lacking phase-out plans in their NECPs, specifically Czechia, Greece, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
  • Air pollution from coal power in Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, Romania, Greece, Slovakia, and Slovenia is estimated to cause 5,460 premature deaths and nearly 105,000 childhood asthma attacks annually, with a societal cost of approximately 16 billion euros.

Cite the original document

APA
Flisowska, J., & Moore, C. (2019). Just transition or just talk? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Just-Transition-or-Just-Talk-2019.pdf
Chicago
Flisowska, Joanna, and Charles Moore. Just transition or just talk? Ember, 2019. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Just-Transition-or-Just-Talk-2019.pdf.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |last1=Flisowska |first1=Joanna |last2=Moore |first2=Charles |title=Just transition or just talk? |publisher=Ember |date=May 2019 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Just-Transition-or-Just-Talk-2019.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{flisowska2019just, author = {Flisowska, Joanna and Moore, Charles}, title = {{Just transition or just talk?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2019}, month = may, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Just-Transition-or-Just-Talk-2019.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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