THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2021

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 assesses how climate change acts as a threat multiplier for global security, emphasizing the urgent need to move from strategic planning to concrete implementation. It introduces a new Climate Security Risk Matrix to evaluate comparative risks among countries and presents a risk perception survey where experts predict severe-to-catastrophic risks by 2031. The report details regional vulnerabilities, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa and the European Union, and analyzes the role of militaries as first responders and contributors to emissions. It concludes with recommendations for updating international law regarding the law of the sea and geoengineering governance, and calls for deeper integration of climate security into UN and EU institutional frameworks.

• Expert projections indicate that climate security risks will escalate rapidly, with most phenomena expected to reach severe-to-catastrophic levels by 2031.
• Security experts perceive the disruption of social systems—such as food, water, and infrastructure—as a more pressing threat to global security by 2041 than direct risks to military assets and missions.
• The global defense sector is the world's largest institutional consumer of hydrocarbons, and its long equipment life cycles create a long-term dependency on fossil fuels.
• In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change exacerbates violent local conflicts, particularly clashes between farmers and herders in the Sahel, which are intensified by population growth and the proliferation of small arms.
• The European Union faces strategic risks from the Arctic, where receding ice opens new trade routes and resource exploration, leading to increased tensions with Russia and China.
• There is a significant gap between the conceptualization of climate security in policy and the actual implementation of measures on the ground.
• Current international law is insufficient to address climate-driven changes to maritime boundaries and the potential risks of unilateral geoengineering.
• The report identifies India as having the highest relative security risk for riverine flooding.

APA

Brock, S., Barrett, O.-L., Birkman, L., Dick, E., Emanual, L., Goodman, S., Guy, K., Kabbej, S., Middendorp, T., Rademaker, M., Remmits, F., & Tasse, J. (2021). THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2021. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/World-Climate-and-Security-Report-2021.pdf

Chicago

Brock, Steve, Oliver-Leighton Barrett, Laura Birkman, Elisabeth Dick, Leah Emanual, Sherri Goodman, Kate Guy, et al. THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2021. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/World-Climate-and-Security-Report-2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{brock2021world, author = {Brock, Steve and Barrett, Oliver-Leighton and Birkman, Laura and Dick, Elisabeth and Emanual, Leah and Goodman, Sherri and Guy, Kate and Kabbej, Sofia and Middendorp, Tom and Rademaker, Michel and Remmits, Femke and Tasse, Julia}, title = {{THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2021}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/World-Climate-and-Security-Report-2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }