CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTH ASIA

The document analyzes climate change as a 'threat multiplier' in South Asia, where it exacerbates socio-economic tensions, fuels violent extremism, and intensifies nuclear-armed rivalries over shared water resources. It highlights the vulnerability of the region to heatwaves, sea level rise, and flooding, which drive mass migration and compromise military readiness. The report specifically examines the hydro-rivalry between China and India over the Brahmaputra and between India and Pakistan over the Indus River Basin. To address these challenges, it recommends integrating climate projections into military planning, establishing comprehensive transboundary water treaties, and accelerating the transition from coal and natural gas to renewable energy through international financing.

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier in South Asia, amplifying internal tensions, resource scarcity, and existing national rivalries, while potentially compromising the effectiveness of military first responders.
• The region faces extreme climate vulnerabilities, with Bangladesh being the most vulnerable. Projections indicate that temperatures in some areas may exceed human tolerance, and sea level rise specifically threatens the cities of Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and Karachi.
• Climate-induced disasters provide opportunities for violent extremist and separatist groups to gain influence. For example, the 2010 floods in Pakistan allowed the Pakistani Taliban to offer aid to locals while demanding the government reject Western assistance.
• Climate change is projected to drive significant internal migration, with an estimated 63 million people in South Asia likely to migrate by 2050, potentially exacerbating ethnic tensions and challenging state institutions.
• The rivalry between China and India is intensified by 'hydro-rivalry' over the Brahmaputra River. China's dam-building projects in Tibet and the lack of a binding water-sharing treaty increase the risk of conflict and downstream water insecurity for India and Bangladesh.
• The India-Pakistan rivalry is magnified by climate-induced variability in the Indus River Basin. Despite the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), both nations fear the other will manipulate dam storage to cause floods or falsely accuse the other of doing so.
• Decarbonizing South Asia's energy sector is critical for security, requiring a shift from coal and natural gas to renewables. While India has expanded its solar portfolio, over 70% of its electricity still comes from coal, and the region requires low-interest international finance to transition.

APA

Shidore, S., & Fleishman, R. (2021). CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTH ASIA. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTH-Asia_February-2021.pdf

Chicago

Shidore, Sarang, and Rachel Fleishman. CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTH ASIA. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTH-Asia_February-2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shidore |first1=Sarang |last2=Fleishman |first2=Rachel |title=CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTH ASIA |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=February 2021 |url=https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTH-Asia_February-2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shidore2021climate, author = {Shidore, Sarang and Fleishman, Rachel}, title = {{CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTH ASIA}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTH-Asia_February-2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }