Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Food Security: Implications for Europe, the United States, and Multilateralism

The report examines the intersection of climate change, food security, and geopolitics, highlighting how food systems are being weaponized by actors like Russia and how China's food security challenges influence its global strategy. It argues that food insecurity acts as a threat multiplier for political instability and conflict, particularly in Africa. The document advocates for a 'nexus approach' that integrates defense, diplomacy, and development to build local agricultural resilience, focusing on smallholder farmers and women to mitigate long-term climate risks and reduce global vulnerabilities.

• Food systems have become critical geopolitical tools, where vulnerabilities in agrifood systems can be exploited by bad actors for strategic gain. This is exemplified by Russia's actions in Ukraine, including attacks on grain silos, warehouses, and ports, and the weaponization of disrupted food exports.
• Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 ended the export of 33 million tons of grain, primarily affecting developing countries. Some estimates suggest the resulting rise in food prices increased intergroup conflict in Africa by a weighted average of 5.3%.
• China's food self-sufficiency ratio dropped from 93.6% in 2000 to 65.8% by the time of the report, with food imports growing by an average of 11.4% annually over two decades. This vulnerability drives China's global strategy, including the Belt and Road Initiative, where it has invested in over 100 ports across approximately 60 countries.
• Climate change poses direct threats to food production within the European Union, where wildfires and prolonged droughts have already caused crop failures and destroyed farmland, potentially impacting exports to the US, UK, and China.
• Building local resilience is essential for global stability, as small-scale farmers produce one third of the world's food (up to 70% in some developing countries) and women comprise nearly 40% of the global agricultural workforce. However, these groups are disproportionately affected by climate shocks and often lack access to climate finance.
• Addressing global food system transformation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires approximately $350 billion per year by 2030. Due to financial constraints, policymakers are encouraged to pursue 'co-benefits' that align security, development, and sustainability objectives.

APA

Cicarelli, S., Parera, P., & Wong, E. (2024). Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Food Security: Implications for Europe, the United States, and Multilateralism. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/01/10/climate-change-geopolitics-and-food-security-event-summary/

Chicago

Cicarelli, Siena, Patricia Parera, and Ethan Wong. Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Food Security: Implications for Europe, the United States, and Multilateralism. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/01/10/climate-change-geopolitics-and-food-security-event-summary/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cicarelli |first1=Siena |last2=Parera |first2=Patricia |last3=Wong |first3=Ethan |title=Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Food Security: Implications for Europe, the United States, and Multilateralism |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=10 January 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/01/10/climate-change-geopolitics-and-food-security-event-summary/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cicarelli2024climate, author = {Cicarelli, Siena and Parera, Patricia and Wong, Ethan}, title = {{Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Food Security: Implications for Europe, the United States, and Multilateralism}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = jan, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/01/10/climate-change-geopolitics-and-food-security-event-summary/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }